It may be a holiday-shortened trading session, but that doesn't mean Tesla (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc Report bulls won't soak up every minute of Wednesday's action. Shares are off the highs, but still up 5% to $236 on the day, after the automaker released better-than-expected second-quarter delivery results.
The stock is hitting its highest levels since early May, when it went cascading lower. Even though the stock is jumping on good news -- and even pushing through some key resistance levels -- it's still not out of the woods yet.
Earlier this week, we detailed Tesla's outlook for the second half of 2019. In it, we wrote that, "it will be important to see that demand has not curtailed like many bears are predicting. A shortfall in Q2 deliveries would raise a red flag."
Factset consensus estimates expected the company to deliver 90,700 vehicles in the quarter. Many estimates were far below that benchmark, given that Tesla delivered just ~63,000 in the first quarter. The final number for Q2 rang in at roughly 95,200 deliveries, right in-line with management's expectations. That's up 51% sequentially and more than 130% year over year.
There were a few absences in the report, though, which are raising some suspicions. First, the company didn't reiterate its full-year delivery guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles. Second, it didn't comment on when it would turn profitable or cash flow positive.
In any regard, the stock is on the move Wednesday. Let's look at the technicals.
Trading Tesla Stock
The rally off the June lows has been impressive, even before Wednesday's climb. Coming into this week, Tesla stock had put together four straight weekly rallies. However, it was struggling to push above its 10-week moving average.
It was also struggling to push through its 50-day moving average, as shares were consolidating in a sideways wedge pattern. We highlighted that pattern in our second-half outlook, noting that Tesla stock was resolving higher. With Wednesday's rally, shares are bursting through the 10-week moving average, as well as prior channel resistance (blue line). Now what?
On the downside, bulls will want to see TSLA stock maintain above its 10-week moving average. They will also want to see it stay above prior channel resistance.
On the upside, though, there could be a tough level of resistance. The $250-ish area served as multi-year range support (blue box). However, once Tesla broke below this mark in April, the stock was rejected by this support level in May. So until proven otherwise, this area is resistance. Further, the 38.2% retracement for the one-year range, sits up near $257.40, which could also act as resistance.
If Tesla can reclaim this area, shares could be in for a solid finish to the year. If this area serves as resistance going forward, though, bulls will have a difficult uphill battle in the second half.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.