I have been calling for a snapback rally since the end of August, and last week it finally arrived. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds interest rate by 50 basis points, sending some of our Rocket Stocks picks up as much as 20%.
However, statistically speaking, this coming week likely will be flat to mildly down as traders and investors look to lock in some gains. Of course, as I've pointed out before, this doesn't really matter. Even if the market has a disastrous week, it will still be the case that out of the roughly 8,000 public companies, at least 1,000 to 2,000 stocks will go up. It's our job to find and bring you those stocks.
This weeks Rocket Stocks --
-- are primarily based around potential snapback plays as well as a few short squeeze candidates.
But before I make any recommendations, let's take a quick look at how
last week's picks
- Harley-Davidson (HOG) - Get Report, up as much as 6% and ending the week up 3.5%.
- Kohl's (KSS) - Get Report, up as much as 8.5% and ending the week up 6%.
- Level 3 Communications (LVLT) , up as much as 9% and ending the week up 3.3%
- New York Community Bancorp( NYB), up as much as 7.5% and ending the week up 3.3%.
- Suncor Energy (SU) - Get Report, up as much as 3% and ending the week down 1%.
- Lehman Brothers( LEH) up as much as 14% and ending the week up 6.9%.
- Meritage Homes (MTH) - Get Report up as much as 20% and ending the week down 3.4%
- Eagle Materials (EXP) - Get Report, up as much as 4% and ending the week only slightly up (0.8%).
- Cyberonics (CYBX) , up as much as 2.7% and ending the week up 1.4%.
- EMC (EMC) , up as much as 2% and ending the week slightly down.
- Countrywide Financial( CFC) (a midweek addition), flat and ending the week down 4%.
- Vaalco Energy (EGY) - Get Report, (a midweek addition), up some 5% and ending the week up 3%.
My favorite place to look for potential rocket stocks, or short-term trades, is the 52-week-low list for the prior week. This is where you can usually find the type of beaten-down stocks that move fast and furious. As an example, testing on the components of the Nasdaq 100 shows that a stock that drops 10% in a day will, on average, be 2% higher one week later. Conversely, if a stock is up 10% in a day, it is usually down one week later.
This leads me to my first pick,
. On Thursday, Circuit City shares got killed after the retailer reported steeper-than-expected losses in the second quarter. The company swung to a loss of $62.8 million, or 38 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit of $10 million, or 6 cents a share. The 38-cent EPS loss was steeper than the 12-cent loss the Street was expecting. This stock's 18% drop since Thursday creates an ideal setup for a snapback rally.
Circuit City currently may be losing out to companies such as
, but with its new and improved electronics section, Circuit City's overall revenue potential shows some growth potential.
Intrinsically, Circuit City has value, especially as an acquisition target for another retailer. It has some 650 stores nationwide and generated revenue of $2.6 billion in the last quarter. So even the slightest improvement in earnings and profit could send this stock back into the midteens. The stock closed Friday at $8.51.
Next up is
, which is by far the most talked-about stock on the
section on Stockpickr.com
This stock has not been kind to many investors and has left most dazed and confused about its next move, up or down. While it is quite clear that overall trading volume at the NYSE is up due to the market's recent volatility, NYSE Euronext shares have not reacted the way many would have expected.
Mega hedge fund
continues to average down in what is now its second-largest holding. In a recent regulatory filing, Atticus reported it owns almost 15 million shares of the exchange, up substantially from its last filing. If NYX does not shape up, look for Atticus to step in and make something happen.
Another name that is on this week's list is
. In a video for TheStreet.com TV that I recently recorded with Cramer --
When Is a Low Price the Wrong Price?
-- Cramer praised E*Trade CEO Mitch Caplan and said, "I want to buy E*Trade so bad!" So why does Cramer feel this way?
E*Trade has fallen some 40% year to date, killed primarily due to its mortgage exposure. But what lender has not gotten hurt in the subprime-mortgage fallout? Fortunately, in this case, the market has overreacted; E*Trade is still primarily a discount online broker and not just a subprime lender.
With $1.6 billion in total cash, $500 million in operating cash flow, great fundamentals, a terrific CEO and solid growth potential, E*Trade could easily rally back into the $20s.
Some of the other picks this week are
, which has almost 40% of its shares sold short. I also revisit
, as the new iPod touch comes out on Friday, as well as
, as gold continues to rally.
For all of this week's picks and analyses, check out the
To find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:
- Today's Hot List: This daily list is a must-view every midday to see what stocks are making the biggest moves and why.
- Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard. When you check this list on Stockpickr, you can see which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. They will be buying at the lower prices, so you should be also.
- Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks.
- Biotech Short Squeezes. Dendreon (DNDN) and others can often be found in this category.
- Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout stocks.
- Stockpickr's System Trades of the Day: These are trades triggering that day in various backtested trading systems we've developed.
- Stocks With Unusual Option Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?
- Latest Activist Situations: These are beaten-down stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on your must-view list.
One final place to frequent is the
section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily.
At the time of publication, Altucher and/or his fund had no positions in stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.
James Altucher is president of Stockpickr LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of TheStreet.com and part of its network of Web properties, and a managing partner at Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm that runs a fund of hedge funds. He is also a weekly columnist for
The Financial Times
and the author of
Trade Like a Hedge Fund
Trade Like Warren Buffett
. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Altucher appreciates your feedback;
to send him an email.
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