
'The Conjuring 2' Scares Nearly as Many as First 'Conjuring' at Box Office
Three new releases opened to varying levels of success at the box office this weekend, as North American audiences attended movie theaters in healthy numbers. Total weekend revenue was down 46% from the same weekend last year, when "Jurassic World" opened to a huge $208.8 million. The top twelve grossed an estimated $145.2 million, a decent result for a June weekend with no guaranteed blockbusters.
"The Conjuring 2" landed on top of the box office heap with an estimated $40.4 million opening. If that number holds when weekend actuals come in, that would represent the largest horror movie opening since "The Conjuring" was released in July 2013. That is a fantastic result for this horror sequel, as its opening essentially matches its $40 million budget and is only down 3.5% from the first "Conjuring." In comparison, the three sequels that preceded "The Conjuring 2" on the release schedule were down an average of 50% from their predecessors. It would appear Warner Bros. has a bona fide franchise on its hands: the two "Conjuring" movies, as well as the "Conjuring" spin-off "Annabelle," have all opened in the $37 to $42 million range. Those represent blockbuster openings for horror movies; the "Paranormal Activity" franchise is the only one in recent memory to achieve a similar level of popularity. Warner Bros. did a bang-up job positioning this movie, releasing it after a long draught of high-profile horror films. Unfortunately for "The Conjuring 2," the horror competition will heat up in the coming weeks, with Sony's "The Shallows" and Universal's "The Purge: Election Year" both expected to attract considerable business over Independence Day weekend. However, given the horror sequel's A- Cinemascore and 89% Audience Rating on Flixster, positive word of mouth should be able to propel the movie past the $100 million mark at the box office.
"Warcraft" made an estimated $24.4 million at the box office over the weekend, a muted performance for a film with a $160 million pricetag before prints and advertising. That opening is in line with recent box office flops such as "Battleship" and "Terminator: Genisys." However, as was the case with those two sci-fi movies, the international numbers for "Warcraft" paint a more promising picture for its financial backers. Foreign box office for this weekend's openers will be discussed on the next page, but suffice it to say that Universal will not be too hung up on the low domestic opening for "Warcraft" given the numbers from China.
"Now You See Me 2" opened in the third position with an estimated $23 million. That is down a sizable 21.5% from the first movie's $29.4 million opening but is undoubtedly a disappointing number for Lionsgate/Summit. The sequel cost a pricey $90 million to make, and the first film's leggy box office run, as well as its success in the home media market, indicated that a sequel might prove more popular than the first "Now You See Me". As was discussed in last week's box office predictions article, the sequel was likely hurt by a "been there, done that" mentality among the general public. In the coming weeks, the sequel will struggle to replicate the holding power of the first film, and will likely end up in the $65 million range domestically.
The fourth and fifth positions were occupied by "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows" and "X-Men: Apocalypse", respectively. "Out of the Shadows" dropped 58% from last weekend to $14.8 million, lifting its domestic total to a poor $61 million. At this point, the sequel from Paramount has an infinitesimal chance of reaching $100 million domestically. "X-Men: Apocalypse" fell 56% from last weekend to $10 million, giving the latest installment in the superhero franchise a ho-hum $136.4 million total stateside.
The big story at the overseas box office this weekend was the huge opening for "Warcraft" in China, where it set a record for reaching one billion yuan faster than any other imported movie at the Chinese box office. The movie brought in $156 million, or 1.027 billion yuan, over its first five days. In comparison, "Warcraft" will not yet have made $30 million by the end of its fifth day on Tuesday. Earnings for "Warcraft" in China have already surpassed the totals of "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" and "Marvel's The Avengers" in the Middle Kingdom, and the video game adaptation has money to make yet. "Warcraft" may be fairly frontloaded, but it will likely reach at least $250 million in China, which will be four to five times larger than its domestic result in North America. Studios may only see 25% of the box office revenue from China, but a return of some $50 million from a foreign territory is nothing to sneeze at, and it will be more than Universal makes from North American returns. "Warcraft" has made a solid $105 million from 51 other foreign territories, and at this pace, the movie is headed for a worldwide box office total of around $500 million. Even if that result doesn't put its financiers in the black, merchandise and home media revenues should, meaning that "Warcraft 2" is not as farfetched some may think-especially given the fact that China is on course to become the biggest box office market in the world by 2017.
"The Conjuring 2" and "Now You See Me 2" had solid weekends at the overseas box office in their own right. "The Conjuring 2" made an estimated $50 million from 44 markets, setting a record for the largest horror opening of all time in 26 of those markets. The movie opened ahead of "The Conjuring" and "Annabelle" in virtually all of those territories, and those two movies were no slouches overseas, coming in at $180.6 million and $172.6 million respectively. "The Conjuring 2" should easily reach that range and may even approach $250 million at the overseas box office-a fantastic result for a $40 million film. "Now You See Me 2" earned an estimated $20.1 million from foreign markets, raising its overseas total to $22.8 million. It is generally opening in line with its predecessor in most markets, which is good news considering "Now You See Me" made $234 million overseas. Even if "Now You See Me 2" doesn't quite reach those heights, a foreign total of around $200 million will be enough to elevate its worldwide gross past $250 million, which would be a solid, if not spectacular, result for this sequel.
Next weekend, "Finding Dory" and "Central Intelligence" will be released into theaters, and both are expected to put up big numbers. "Finding Dory" is expected to open over $100 million domestically, while "Central Intelligence" looks like it has the potential to break out, due to its bankable stars and appealing premise. Make sure to check in on Thursday for official box office predictions!











