Take-Two Interactive (TTWO - Get Report) may be the best maker of video games in the business, according to Jefferies, but the lack of a blockbuster game on the horizon makes the company's stock vulnerable.
Jefferies analyst Timothy O'Shea downgraded the stock to hold from buy while also lowering his price target to $115 from $135. Take-Two shares were down 0.71% to $116.33 on Thursday.
"TTWO possesses the most high-quality content amongst the U.S. publishers, yet valuation feels full at ~25x fiscal 2021 EPS (near-all time highs)," O'Shea wrote. "Despite the undeniable success of 'Grand Theft Auto' & 'Red Dead Redemption' and the long-tail revenue contribution, we believe TTWO is now in a 'soft spot' when considering the timing of the next major release. Fiscal 2020 comps are tough after the 'Red Dead Redemption 2' release, and we don't anticipate 'GTA VI' until fiscal 2022."
Jefferies noted that all three major video game publishers (Take-Two, Electronic Arts (EA - Get Report) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI - Get Report) ) are projected to grow revenue below industry levels in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, free-to-play games like "Fortnite" continue to take market share, adding to the industry headwinds.