Stock Market on Pins and Needles as FOMC Prepares to Meet
After a session of voracious
buying on expectations of a benign
Federal Open Market Committee
meeting, stocks are taking a wait-and-see approach this morning.
Things should head lower in the early going. At 9 a.m. EDT, the
futures were off 4.8, about 2.5 points below fair value and indicating a dip at the open.
The real action will take place this afternoon, after the Fed concludes its fifth meeting of the year. A 25-basis-point hike in the federal funds rate is a given: Every one of the 30 U.S. primary dealers but
Bear Stearns
says so, as does the September
fed funds futures contract, which has priced in 94% of that hike. What's really at issue are whether the Fed will stick with its neutral bias and the general tone of the statement to be released at around 2:15 p.m. EDT.
Yesterday's huge rally tells us one thing: Despite the languorous air pervading much of the market since mid-July, people certainly seem to want to buy stocks again. And you've got to think that, wisely or foolishly, a neutral bias would let them do that, insofar as yesterday's surge was based on assumption that Fed won't be raising rates again ahead of Y2K.
Still, the market's upside sentiment may have been exaggerated by the low volume of recent sessions. Don't be surprised to see stocks move sharply in either direction as people start coming back into the market late in the afternoon.
Emblematic of that predicament is Paul Rich, a trader at
BT Brokerage
. Rich sees a big short-term rally if the Fed stands pat. On the other hand, he isn't absolutely ruling out the slim possibility of a 50-basis-point hike. If that happens, Rich said, "We'd tank."
But what about the more likely scenario of 25 basis points and a neutral bias? "I'd have to wait and see what the reaction is," he said.
The 30-year Treasury wasn't jumping the gun this morning. At 9:00, the long bond was off 6/32 to 101 25/32, its yield rising to 5.996%.
In Tokyo, stocks gave back some of the large gains garnered in the wave of positive sentiment spurred by Friday's news that
Industrial Bank of Japan
,
Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank
and
Fuji Bank
planned to create a banking alliance with assets of about $1.3 trillion. Excluding those three banks, which extended their gains, financial stocks sold off with particular vigor.
The
Nikkei
fell 138.14, or 0.8%, to 18,095.41. The dollar continued its technical rebound against the yen overnight, lately sitting at 111.71 yen.
For the second straight day, bad weather related to Typhoon Sam kept Hong Kong markets closed for the morning session. For the second straight day, stocks surged when trading started in the afternoon, thus taking the
Hang Seng
up more than 200 points. And for the second straight day, investors took profits ahead of today's FOMC meeting. In the end, the Hang Seng gained 60.21 to 13,633.87.
The big European bourses were mixed toward midday in cautious pre-FOMC trading. London's
FTSE
was down 34.7 to 6287.4, while the Paris
CAC
was up 1.12 to 4488.47. Frankfurt's
Xetra Dax
was 28.70 lower to 5273.28.
Tuesday's Wake-Up Watchlist
By
Brian Louis
Staff Reporter
Mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures
Cyprus Amax Minerals
(CYM)
is facing pressure from shareholders to break ranks with
Asarco
(AR) - Get Free Report
on their pending get-together in light of
Phelps Dodge's
(PD) - Get Free Report
unsolicited bids to acquire Cyprus and Asarco for $2.7 billion in stock,
The Wall Street Journal
reported, citing people familiar with the situation.
Gentner Communications
undefined
set a strategic partnership under which
Nextlink Communications
undefined
will distribute Gentner's conference-calling services to its long-distance customers in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah and Washington.
Nortel
(NT)
is buying
Periphonics
(PERI) - Get Free Report
for an estimated $436 million in stock.
Earnings/revenue reports and previews
(Earnings estimates are from
First Call
.)
Perry Ellis International
(PERY) - Get Free Report
posted second-quarter earnings of 23 cents a share, ahead of the two-analyst estimate of 17 cents and up from the year-ago 15 cents.
Regis
undefined
posted fourth-quarter earnings of 32 cents a share, which excludes nonrecurring items, in line with the six-analyst estimate and up from the year-ago 27 cents.
Analyst actions
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
upgraded
Duke Energy
(DUK) - Get Free Report
to strong buy from outperform.
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter downgraded
IMC Global
undefined
to neutral from outperform.
Credit Suisse First Boston
initiated coverage of
NetIQ
undefined
with a buy rating and put a price target of 29 on the stock.
PaineWebber
upgraded
Procter & Gamble
(PG) - Get Free Report
to attractive from neutral.
PaineWebber initiated coverage of
Salton
(SFP)
with a buy rating.
Miscellany
Responding to protests, online auctioneer
eBay
(EBAY) - Get Free Report
reduced a new fee and suspended plans to change bidding policies for some items, the
Journal
reported.
SBC Communications
undefined
is expected to launch telephone-service "bundles," aiming to compete with similar packages planned by
AT&T
(T) - Get Free Report
, the
Journal
reported.
Graphics computer maker
SGI's
(SGI)
acting CEO, Richard Belluzzo, resigned to accept a position at another company.
TheStreet.com
wrote about the situation in a story
last night.
Waste Management
(WMI)
named Donald R. Chappel CFO.
Offerings and stock actions
Siebel Systems'
undefined
board approved a 2-for-1 stock split.
