B.A., Lehigh University. Geiling has followed telecommunications equipment companies for J.P. Morgan since 1996. Before that, he tracked media and entertainment names for the firm, which he joined in 1994.
Industry Outlook and Style
Institutional voters in
Analyst Rankings -- Equity 2000
praised Geiling for the pot of money he helped them make on
in 1999. (The stock, which Geiling tagged in February 1999, had a spectacular run last year, ascending a phenomenal 2,619%.) But when the analyst himself was asked about his notable calls in the first half of 2000, Geiling pointed to two cautious signals he made on industry giants
In October 1999, Geiling suggested lightening up on Lucent when he saw the beginning of a slowdown in one of its main business lines, circuit switching. (He didn't reduce his rating, however.) Shares subsequently fell from the mid-70s to current levels in the low 40s.
This past April, Geiling downgraded Motorola to a long-term buy -- he was concerned about profitability levels, despite the company's accelerating mobile phone business. Motorola shares were at $50 the day of his downgrade, but they have since plummeted to the mid-30s.
As for his forward view: A year from now, wagers the J.P. Morgan analyst, investors will be celebrating his bullish stance on several of the 15 stocks he tracks: His wide-ranging universe includes wireline and wireless telecommunications equipment names, as well as the data networking sector. Moreover, in the past two years, he has expanded his purview to include such newcomers as data networking companies
, and fiber-optics pure plays
. (J.P. Morgan has been part of the underwriting group for each of these IPOs.)
Geiling's picks have outperformed the S&P 500 index by an impressive 34% so far this year, and he believes that the group will continue to perform well, though high prices are making him choosy. Says the analyst: "We continue to be positive on the entire industry for the remainder of the year, but we've become more selective as valuations for the whole sector have gotten high. We're focused on the best-positioned long-term players."
Among the large, diversified names, Geiling is a big supporter of two core holdings,
. In July, when Nortel was in the mid-70s, he slapped a 12-month price target of $125 on the stock. The rationale: Geiling anticipates revenue gains in excess of 100% this year from Nortel's industry-leading fiber-optic systems and components business. For the company as a whole, he sees revenue growing 40%, from $21 billion last year to $30 billion by the end of 2000, with earnings per share advancing from 52 cents to 70 cents year over year.
As for Cisco, Geiling put a price target of $100 on the stock in the first quarter, when the stock was in the low 50s. It has traded lately in the mid-60s. Notes the analyst: "Cisco continues to dominate the data networking market and is just entering the high-growth optical business, where we think it will gain a fair amount of market share over the next two years, based on its brand name and good customer relationships. Both of those factors should fuel overall revenue growth of 53% this year over last, from $12 billion to $19 billion, and push up earnings per share 44 percent, from 36 to 53 cents."
The J.P. Morgan analyst is even keener on pure-optics plays Sycamore and Corvis. "These are by far the two best companies of those that focus
on optics, and they have the best cutting-edge optical technology," Geiling asserts.
Sycamore, which went public in October 1999, could reach $250 by early 2001, Geiling believes. While admitting that the stock is volatile, the analyst forecasts a rock-solid 1,500% revenue increase for the company this year.
Geiling predicts that Corvis, a July 28 IPO, could climb to $145 in the next 12 months. (Shares more than doubled, from $36 to $83, on the stock's first trading day and subsequently climbed to $108 before falling back to the high 80s.) Corvis is only beginning to generate revenue, notes Geiling, but he expects revenue to swell from $34 million this year to $260 million in 2001.
Favorite stock for next 12 months:
Sycamore and Corvis
"I just can't pick one of these stocks over the other. They're both going to be spectacular performers. Even though it's easy to look at this group and say, 'It's expensive, so I'll wait for a pullback to buy it,' my advice is: Don't wait. Buy today, because the fundamentals will stay so strong that they will support the valuation levels."
Rate Their Stock Picks:
Which stock do you like best?
Geiling and Jungjohann: Corvis