Salesforce (CRM) has long been a Sarge fave. If you read me often, then you already know that.
Ever see the 1980s classic film "Ferris Bueller's Day Off?" Remember the "Sausage King of Chicago?" While that sounds like quite a prestigious title, I think a title along the lines of "the Subscription Model King of Cloud-based Commerce" might be nice too. In fact, if memory serves... our own Jim Cramer had already thought of that, when he included Salesforce among his elite group, simply to be known as "the Cloud Kings." This group of seven would include not just Salesforce, but arch rival Adobe (ADBE) , Red Hat (RHT) , Splunk (SPLK) , VMWare (VMW) , Workday (WDAY) and ServiceNow (NOW) .
Just in case you have been out in the wilderness, or attempting to cross the Atlantic Ocean by yourself in a canoe, Tuesday kicks off the massive Salesforce tech conference in San Francisco known simply as "Dreamforce." On the surface, the business of Salesforce is to provide for, or handle for its clients, the necessary organizational skills, sales operations, customer relations, marketing and e-commerce abilities needed to compete in the modern marketplace.
Within this four-day conference is to be the firm's own investor day. That happens tomorrow, after the closing bell for equity markets rings in New York. The big story this year was to be the integration of Mulesoft. This will enhance the ability of Salesforce to aid clientele trying to integrate new tools onto older platforms. Huzzah. Like I said, Mulesoft was to be the main event, but now I am not so sure.
You likely noticed that ahead of the whole event, Action Alerts PLUS holdings Salesforce and Apple (AAPL) announced a partnership that sent shares of both stocks significantly higher on Monday. The two giants will develop together software that will provide businesses greater ease in the writing of applications for Apple mobile devices that will run on the Salesforce cloud. Interesting.
Chart of The Day: Salesforce
I bet you can recall this chart. I drag an updated version of it out every month or two just to show how darned consistent a performer Salesforce actually is. Kind of like Olympic champion Edwin Moses. One easily sees that while most of the rest of the cloud has, at times in recent weeks, hit some growing pains, this train just stays on time. As we head into the big event in San Francisco, Relative Strength, Money Flow, and the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence all seem to be rowing the boat in the same direction.
The Pitchfork model, that now dates back more than a year, remains intact. As a matter of fact, that central trend line has morphed from pivot into support since early August, likely breathing extended life into this model. On a side note, I really can't believe how rarely I see Andrews' Pitchfork models used for analysis these days across the industry. As some one who trades the names I write about, there is no denying their usefulness. I won't judge. At least not publicly.
Target Price: $170 (up from $160)
Panic Point: $146 (up from $132)
The firm will report on Nov. 28. As of last night, Nov. 16 $170 calls paid $2.11. Each contract sold there would knock $2.11 off of one's cost basis per 100 shares held.
I would not advise this strategy for those flat the shares. For those looking to possibly enter at a discount, or just pay for a nice dinner with a pal... November 16 $145 puts still paid $1.67 last night, meaning that even if the trader were forced to own the shares going into earnings, that this trader's net basis cost would be just $143.33.
(A longer version of this column appeared at 7:39 a.m. ET on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here to get great columns like this from Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle, Jim Cramer and other experts throughout the market day.)