Not even retail is safe anymore.
Last October, when the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
plunged some 500 heart-stopping points over a meltdown in Asia, retailers provided a safe haven to money managers who shunned any company with international exposure. But now, some of the issues weighing on the market, such as
sexual exploits and a slowdown in consumer spending, are closer to home.
"The retail stocks are caught up in the overall market mood," says Stephen Schuster, a New York money manager and former retail analyst with
First Manhattan Company
. "It's a market call whether or not to buy the retailers. There are no safe havens."
A large and long-lasting market decline would likely impact the retail group where it hurts most: consumer spending. Much of consumption is based on the wealth effect of the stock market. "I have no doubt that people walk around with balance sheets in their heads, calculating their net worth," says one money manager who specializes in retail stocks. Lose a bundle in
this week, and consumers may think twice before purchasing that new leather jacket or diamond bracelet. Another factor that may eat into consumer confidence is massive job cuts thanks to the rampant M&A activity.
One catalyst that might juice the group in coming weeks: July same-stores sales, which will be reported Thursday, are expected to be on plan for most companies. That means fewer big misses for second-quarter earnings, which will be reported in the next few weeks. While July is mainly a clearance month and is not the best crystal ball for the back-to-school season, Richard Church, an analyst with
Salomon Smith Barney
in New York, gave positive indications for the fall in his weekly same-store sales update. "Early indications about fall and back-to-school sales are encouraging ... during a time when investors are fretting about consumer spending slowing," he wrote in a note dated August 4.
Nevertheless, some money managers are hesitant to jump into this fast-moving market. Schuster, for instance, says he's waiting for a bottom, perhaps in the next week or so. He says
has been oversold, but deciding when to buy in this dicey market is tricky. "You could've bought it this morning at 48 and a few minutes later at 46," he says. Two hours later, it was back to 48.
Analysts who make bold calls may find themselves ahead of a steamroller market that flattens even the positive stories. For instance, Michael Exstein, with
Credit Suisse First Boston
in New York, named
Federated Department Stores
a featured stock on Monday, when shares traded at 52, down 7.4% from their 52-week-high of 56 3/16 hit last month. By Tuesday, shares had declined another 5.2% to 49 1/4, even though most analysts expect the department-store chain to report better-than-expected same-stores sales tomorrow.
With that backdrop in mind, some money managers are cherry-picking their favorite ideas. These are either quality stocks that have been knocked down with the group or companies that have underperformed in the first half of the year but are ready to show some spunk.
John Jarres, portfolio manager of the
fund in Denver, Colo., says he's looking for companies trading below their historic multiples with strong fundamentals.
is a prime candidate on his buy list. The retailer has seen continued strength in its
discount-store chain, yet the stock has fallen 16% off its high to 45 Wednesday.
"Considering the third month of comparable-store sales will be reported Thursday, we'll know what everyone's revenue will be for the second quarter," Jarres says. "If a company's revenue exceeds analyst expectations and the valuations are reasonable, that's where I'd go."
, the off-price retailer, also has fallen off its highs. "They consistently deliver nice comps," says Helen Ng, an analyst with
in Saddle Brook, N.J., who owns shares. Investors were pushing the shares up 6% Wednesday to 23 1/2 by midday.
Ng also likes
, which has been on the sidelines for the year's rally. The company, which sells close-out merchandise, ran into trouble after buying the
chain. Inventory backed up. But now, thanks to a remerchandising effort that is showing positive results, same-store sales should pick up speed in September, Ng says. "It's really a beaten-up stock that will do well going forward."
Just because the market's been on a downward slope for days doesn't mean certain stocks won't go lower. One to watch out for is
, the home improvement rival to
. Same-store sales gains slowed to 4.9% in June, compared with a 10.3% in May. If July is another slow month, momentum investors may begin to leave this house party.
, the children's clothing retailer, is a favorite short of one New York money manager. Gymboree has felt the pain inflicted by rival
, which offers cheaper, more basic apparel -- not to mention the marketing muscle of its parent.
In Gymboree's first quarter, which ended in May, the company reported that income decreased 52% to $4.1 million, or 17 cents per share, from $8.6 million, or 34 cents per share a year ago. While sales grew 21% to $103 million from $85 million last year, inventories more than doubled to $75 million, from $37 million last year. The company tried to work off that bloated inventory through heavy markdowns in June.
The stock has already fallen 63% to this year to 10. "Is this a concept that survives?" wonders the money manager.
For more info on institutional holders of these stocks, as well as financial statements and earnings estimates, please see the
Thomson Company Reports.