Much of Netflix's growth story has been predicated on subscriber additions, but as that part of its business slows down future growth will be contingent on price hikes, according to the Citi note.
However, it will be unlikely that Netflix will have the pricing power to sustain that growth due to the second problem with Netflix's outlook: its increasing competition. Until that competition moderates, Netflix will have trouble raising its prices.
Disney+ (DIS) - Get The Walt Disney Company Report , one of the company's newest and most prominent competitors, for example, currently prices its streaming service at $6.99 per month, compared with Netflix's base price of $8.99 per month.
The lower price point for Disney+ seems to be paying dividends about three weeks after its debut, with data research firm Apptopia estimating that the service's mobile app has been download 15.5 million times. In-app purchases totaled about $5 million in the 13 days after its launch, according to Apptopia.
Disney announced a couple of weeks ago that Disney+ attracted 10 million subscribers about a day after its Nov. 12 launch. Those numbers were helped by partnership deals with big companies like Verizon (VZ) - Get Verizon Communications Inc. Report , but the competition for Netflix is here and getting stronger.
Investors may have already priced in this increased competition, however, as the stock has fallen 20% from its July peak. However, on the other side, the stock is up 20% from a September low.
Citi cut its price target on the stock to $325 from $410 a share.
Netflix was trading down 1.26% to $306.09 on Tuesday.