NEW YORK (
) -- Analysts estimate that major lenders may lose $44 billion in a "worst case scenario" from mortgage-repurchase requests.
In a report on Monday titled
Sensationalism Not Warranted
, FBR's Paul Miller suggested that the losses were "manageable."
In dollar terms, Miller estimates that
Bank of America
have the biggest loss exposure. They will absorb more than half of the total industry losses, Miller says.
However, relative to earnings, SunTrust, along with
, will feel the most earnings pressure.
will be impacted the least.
Miller added that the largest banks - Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp and PNC - will be "the most adept" at offsetting those earnings headwinds with other businesses. He reiterated outperform ratings on those stocks, adding that the short-term addition to earnings pressure is unlikely to become a major balance-sheet issue.
"We want to reiterate that repurchase losses will be an earnings issue for the industry, and we do not expect financial institutions to be forced to raise capital as a result of repurchase-related losses," said Miller.
have been pressuring big banks to buy back loans that have contract breaches, in an effort to limit taxpayer losses on mortgage debt. Banks have argued that Fannie and Freddie are being atypically aggressive in buyback requests, with many of the mortgages getting pushed back for minor paperwork issues.
Yet they've also been battling with Fannie, Freddie and their regulator -- the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) -- over the issue. There are $4.7 billion in outstanding requests that have not been accepted; more than one-third have been outstanding for more over 90 days. Acting director Edward DeMarco
indicated last week that the FHFA is prepared to "look to its supervisory and conservatorship authorities" to resolve the issue if banks don't act on the repurchase requests.
Miller's assumptions for a "base case" scenario show that Bank of America stands to lose $9.1 billion, or 34 cents per share, on both Fannie-Freddie and private-label buyback demands. JPMorgan Chase stands to lose $8.7 billion, or 27 cents per share; Citigroup stands to lose $3 billion, or 5 cents per share; Wells Fargo $2 billion, with no per-share loss estimate provided; SunTrust $1.05 billion, or 31 cents per share;
$948 million, or 44 cents per share; and other lenders less than $500 million.
--Written by Lauren Tara LaCapra in New York.
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