Shares of luxury retailer Coach (COH) have been battling heavy resistance just below $39 since the post-election rally. After Thursday's weak performance, the stock appears to be losing the fight and is in danger of a deep selloff.

If Coach stock is unable to regain its footing near the November low, the potential for a fresh down leg will be very strong.

A little more than a week before the election, Coach reported very solid first-quarter earnings. The stock rallied initially on the news, but was unable to build on the gains. Just ahead of Nov. 9, the stock was trading in a narrow range just above key support near the September and October lows.

Along with the bulk of the S&P 500, Coach got a nice boost after the election, but once again was unable to build any momentum. Heavy resistance near the 200-day moving average, which had capped the post-earnings rally as well, turned back the stock.

Late last week, Coach failed at the 200-day again, leaving behind what now looks like an ominous high.

The overhead pressure now in place will likely drive the stock lower in the near term. For patient investors, the result will be a very low-risk entry opportunity if the $34.50 area can hold. This key support zone has done a great job of containing the damage over the last three months.

Once through $36, this zone will be tested again and, if it fails to hold, a steep selloff into deeply oversold territory is likely ahead.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.