Shares of Micron Technology Inc. (MU) - Get Report have been on fire lately. Shares were gaining 3.30%, at $44.33, moments into the Thursday open. Since the start of August, this $51 billion semiconductor stock has rallied more than 61%, leaving the rest of the broad market in its dust.
And according to Wall Street analysts' price targets, we're only just getting started. Micron has one of the biggest upsides to analysts' average 12-month price targets in the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average $58.85 target for shares implies another 33% upside move in the year ahead.
That rally leg could happen sooner than those analysts imagine, though.
That's because Micron is currently teetering on the verge of a key breakout move. Simply put, Micron could be ready for blastoff this winter. To figure out how to trade it, we're turning to the chart for a technical look.
Right now, Micron is forming a fairly textbook example of an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation setup that signals the possibility for more upside ahead. The pattern is formed by horizontal resistance to the upside (in a range between $47 and $50 for MU), and uptrending support to the downside.
Basically, as Micron's stock price has pinballed in between those two technically important price levels since the start of December, this stock has been getting squeezed closer and closer to a big breakout.
Price momentum, measured by 14-day RSI up at the top of the price chart, add some extra confidence to Micron's upside move here. We're witnessing this stock's second rebound off of the 30 level our momentum gauge since the end of the summer -- last time, it brought us the 61% rally from August's swing lows. Now, we're staring down take-two.
Still, price is king. MU triggers a new buy signal when shares crack the $47 resistance level -- that's an indication that buyers are still squarely in control of the price action this winter, and an opportunity to build a starter position in Micron. From there, a breakout above November highs at $50 is the place to scale into a full-sized position in the MU trade.
Even though Micron's price trajectory looks outstanding right now, risk management remains key. The bottom of MU's ascending triangle pattern at $40 is a logical place to park a protective stop -- if $40 gets violated, then the bullish trade is broken, and you don't want to own Micron any more.
Until then, shares of MU are pointing up and to the right.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.