NEW YORK (
stock recovered slightly Tuesday after falling by 8% on Monday on news that the monoline insurer had been downgraded to a AA from a AAA by Standard & Poor's.
The stock closed Monday at $19.52, down $1.76 a share. Tuesday the stock was up 48 cents at $20.
"Yesterday stock dive was an overreaction," said Jim Ryan, senior analyst of equity research at Morningstar. "It is not that big of a deal. When you look at what S&P said, they were concerned with statutory progress."
Ryan explains that despite trouble in the financial guaranty busies Assured Guaranty is the only monoline backing new bonds while the rest if the industry has shrunk significantly. He adds that although the uncertainty rating on the company is high, the fair value estimate remains the same because the company is making more of a profit on each deal.
Ryan adds that other monolines are "out of business" until the mortgage buy back issue is settled, most likely through the courts. Lawsuits between
against several banks. "Really, Assured Guaranty will be the only player in the market so there may be less business, but more profit for them," Ryan said.
However Ed Grebeck, CEO of Tempus Advisors, believes that it is only a matter of time before Assured Guaranty's business model runs it into the ground.
"I'm surprised that the rating agencies pursue the myth that there is still a viable business," said Grebeck. "The monoline business model is to under price the risk they wrap and Assured Guaranty is doing the same thing that MBIA and Ambac did."
--Written by Maria Woehr in New York.
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