Trading was halted on the stock Monday morning after being down 25% in premarket trading. The stock had already been falling late last week, when news of the "60 Minutes" story first surfaced. Unless the news on Lumber Liquidators worsens quite a bit, the stock is likely near a bottom. The company is debt-free and profitable. Its 52-week high is $110.52.
I'm sticking with my short puts I wrote about on Friday for Real Money Pro, for the moment.
I passed on buying stock outright, but I did take advantage of its depressed price and increased volatility by selling long-term puts at juicy premiums.
Speculators paid as much as $5.86 and $8.50 on Thursday for LL Jan. 2017 $35 and $40 puts, respectively. Writing the more conservative $35 strike only commits to worst-case scenario buying at a net price of $29.14 ($35 strike, $5.86 put premium).
The ultra-low break-even price on the $35 puts provides a better than 41% margin of safety from the trade inception price of $49.75. Barring other outrageously bad news, that should be more than enough cushion for those willing to shoulder the near-term headline risk.
The expirations extend all the way out to 2017 and have break-evens that remain well below current prices, even after this morning's selloff. There is plenty of time for a stabilization or rebound once the headline shock wears off.
American Express(AXP) - Get Reportlooked pretty bad a week earlier after falling on bad news to $77.12 from a yearly high of $96.24. A few days later American Express is starting the week at $81.75, in the absence of any good news.
Editor's note: This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro on Monday, March 2 at 9:02 a.m. EST.
At the time of publication, Price was short Jan 2017 LL $40 and $35 puts.