Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report is not exactly known for its low valuation, but its growth has been undeniable. However, Amazon's stock charts are starting to roll over, suggesting that a potential correction may be on the way.
While Amazon doesn't have a low valuation compared to mega-cap peers like Apple (AAPL) - Get Report , Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Report or Alphabet (GOOG) - Get Report(GOOGL) - Get Report , it has become much more palatable vs. its historical valuation. That's as more and more profit continues to drop to the bottom line.
The company's Amazon Web Services unit is responsible for a lot of its growth, both in sales and profits over the past few years. Because Amazon is positioned squarely in the midst of several secular growth trends, many expect the top and bottom lines to continue growing for many years.
So why, then, is the stock stagnating?
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Trading Amazon Stock
While many of the mega cap tech stocks above are looking better on the long side, Amazon stock just can't seem to get off the mat.
Shares are languishing near the August lows and on Wednesday, AMZN stock hit a new low for the third quarter. Earlier this week, the 200-day moving average gave way as support while Amazon has been building below this mark since. That's a bad sign for investors, as the charts point more and more toward a deeper potential correction.
Working against Amazon stock at this point: Shares are below 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages and failed to hold 2019 uptrend support (blue line). Further, it can't seem to stay above the 61.8% retracement near $1,757, which has been a notable level throughout the year, while the post-earnings reaction from July was negative.
Is it all bad for Amazon? Not necessarily.
But for bulls to get excited, they need to see better price action. That either comes in the form of sudden strength reclaiming key levels, or a deeper correction to get more excited about.
Since shares are shaping up for a potential correction, my eye drifts down to the 50% retracement for the one-year range, currently near $1,671 -- a dollar below the June lows. If that mark fails to support AMZN stock, sub-$1,600 could be on deck.
Just because the charts are tilting toward a pullback doesn't mean it will happen with 100% certainty. More specifically, if Amazon stock can climb above the $1,775 level, it will reclaim the 200-day moving average, 61.8% retracement and uptrend support.
That's the first step to higher prices -- and a big development for the bulls if it happens. Above that and the 50-day moving average is possible, with $1,850 above that.
Let's not get ahead of our skis, though, and see if AMZN can complete the first requirement, which is a move above the 200-day.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.