International Rectifier Corporation (
Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference
Feb 15, 2012 02:40 PM ET
Oleg Khaykin - President and CEO
Jim Schneider - Goldman
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My name is Jim Snider from the semiconductor here at Goldman and it's my pleasure to introduce IR today. IR is a broad line supplier of analog products into the communications, computing, industrial, consumer and military aerospace end markets and with those from the company is Oleg Khaykin. Welcome Oleg.
Thank you Jim.
Jim Schneider - Goldman
So just wanted your thoughts at sort of very high level on or maybe sort of tactical over actually on near term business trends, clearly you've seen similar things to the rest of the industry over the past couple of quarters, we've seen a pretty pronounced in store correction across the industry. But it looks like something your business has started to turn the corner at this point and guided the sales flat up 9% for the March quarter I believe it was. Can you give us a sense of what you've been seeing from customers? What times you think that they were actually at the bottom of the cycle and what do you think the reflection looks like from here.
Well I think really December and March quarter should be taken together kind of the floor and really depending on whether you took your poison in the December quarter or you spread it out between two quarters, if you took our word, dropped in the December quarter, you're probably more towards down in the March quarter, if you took bigger drops like which chose to do in the December quarter, you're going to see some recovery. And the basic thing is it always comes down to the end demand and the end demand do not really drop that much. Because I look at my sell-in and sell through numbers last quarter in Asia, my sell through was down in single digits in demand, but sell-in was down 30 to 40%. So there is clearly everybody is burning inventory and inventories are being burned not just steady distribution semiconductor company levels but all the way up to the retail aspect. Everything is evenly coming down and one of the things that everybody has forgotten, 2008, 2009 and I talked to some of our customers in their procurement, I said well, what is the deal with the device, well, I am under strict orders to reduce inventory. I don't care. I'm not even if you give me 5-10% discount, I am reducing inventories come hell or high water because my TL wants floor inventories and that percolates all the way across industry.
So the good news is that last quarter and this quarter things are coming down. The other one is I look at the economy in China coming to pick up. They had a big slowdown because of the liquidity crunch that took about three months but it really hit us hard and hit lot of the industrial and their consumer conception in the December quarter. It's not coming back, they opened all the tickets in December, so it's going to proclaim.
So where we are right now is, we're seeing some orders come in but a lot of that is very much like people pinging, they said, hey I got an order coming in, do you have a product. If you have products in a shop right now, they'll take it, if not, they'll have somebody else have it. At the same time you're seeing people putting orders for the next quarter because they figure June and September are the very strong quarters generally in the cycle and with inventories being depleted, everybody hedging their back that suppliers might run out of buffer stock and they will have to hit hard lead times.
But what I am seeing today if I say characterize the order pattern between cancellations push out and orders coming in, it's clearly in a positive territory.
Jim Schneider - Goldman
Got it and then you mentioned Asia and I either missed but didn’t ask about post Chinese New Year. What have you seen from your customers in China post the holiday. Clearly there is always a lot of the companies have talked about the things were strong and generally ahead of the holiday. They are always strong in generally you have the holiday. Just question is what are they after the holiday.
Yes, look March quarter is seasonally weak quarter anyway. So we did get orders. Right before our earnings I mentioned we got three days, we got orders and the question was is it people just catching up or is it real orders. But to me now I have two weeks and what I am looking at is hey, it's not a one trick pony not one blend. Its consistently the positive signals are out way the negative signal which is very from the beginning of the December quarter where you had negative signals far outweigh the positive signals. So the net gain or losses to your visibility in the quarter is more positive than negative. But that is probably varied by depending what you chose to do in December. If you chose to not take the first market business and del with the inventory or you chose to push the product in with some incentive because then if you did then March quarter will be weaker for you, if you didn’t, March quarter should be stronger for you.