When the cat is away, the mice shall play.
Hat tip to TheStreet's John Pickering, who wrote that with Donald Trump chilling at his Florida resort this week the market has been able to rally. Coincidence? Probably not. With Trump out of the way, the market has been able to focus on the decent round of earnings that have started to trickle in. To that end, the market has a new earnings report it must seriously consider before rallying into the weekend.
IBM's (IBM - Get Report) margin disappointment was putting pressure on shares Wednesday. While it appears to be company-specific, the fact the market is overlooking a 3-cent earnings beat from Big Blue -- and solid beats by banks like Action Alerts PLUS holding Goldman Sachs (GS - Get Report) -- is a short-term bearish indicator.
WTF With Tesla
At this rate, 'Jolt' will become nothing more than a morning Tesla (TSLA - Get Report) blog that so happens to be delivered straight to your email inbox. Keeping up with the daily news flow on Elon Musk's car creation is becoming darn near impossible. There is around-the-clock speculation on production goals. People hop into chat rooms to complain about Model 3 build quality and factory working conditions. Musk always looms large on Twitter. There are YouTube videos of people passing parking lots filled with just produced Model 3s.
And then there is a leaked letter from Musk proclaiming a profit gusher is about to open up the likes of which Ford (F - Get Report) and General Motors (GM - Get Report) have never seen. Shout out to auto site Electrek for getting its hands on a letter Musk sent to employees this week, promising big things (profits, for one) and a quick ramp in Model 3 production. Yours truly came away with this thought: Tesla is horribly managed, lacks key processes and is badly in need of executive level leadership throughout.
Here's one excerpt written by Musk:
"Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn't have a strong value justification. All capital or other expenditures above a million dollars, or where a set of related expenses may accumulate to a million dollars over the next 12 months, should be considered on hold until explicitly approved by me. If you are the manager responsible, please make sure you have a detailed, first principles understanding of the supplier quote, including every line item of parts & labor, before we meet. I have been disappointed to discover how many contractor companies are interwoven throughout Tesla. Often, it is like a Russian nesting doll of contractor, subcontractor, sub-subcontractor, etc. before you finally find someone doing actual work. This means a lot of middle-managers adding cost but not doing anything obviously useful. Also, many contracts are essentially open time & materials, not fixed price and duration, which creates an incentive to turn molehills into mountains, as they never want to end the money train."
Jolt Investing Tip of the Day
Always, always, ALWAYS be thinking about the future. It's easy to get bogged down into analyzing headlines and financials on companies each day. But sometimes you have to take a step back and assess the future. Case in point: commodities continue to be hot amid geopolitical concerns and a still strong global economy. What we could be witnessing is the start of a summer inflationary spike at the consumer level that hurts demand, and the U.S. economy.
Very few on Wall Street have this factored into their profit forecasts. Paging the Federal Reserve ...