NEW YORK (
will be surprise trading standouts when the global securities giants report first quarter earnings, according to a report published Tuesday by JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein.
Trading profitability is probably the most difficult area of bank earnings for analysts to estimate correctly, and as a result it is often the key factor in determining whether big trading banks like Goldman, Credit Suisse,
Bank of America
exceed or miss expectations.
Many analysts have been focusing on client activity which, they say, is better than the traditionally lackluster fourth quarter but still uninspiring.
However, Abouhossein argues the focus should instead be on mark-to-market hedging gain positions. As a result, he believes banks that performed the worst in the fourth quarter versus their third quarter numbers -- especially in fixed income currency and commodities trading -- will outperform in the first quarter.
In addition to forecasting consensus-beating trading numbers for Goldman, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse, Abouhossein expects the trend to hurt
. Nonetheless, he maintains his "overweight" recommendation on UBS, arguing it has "restructuring potential" in its investment bank and should also benefit from a shift by institutional investors out of fixed income assets and into equities.
Abouhossein does not explain what he means when he refers to the UBS investment bank's restructuring potential, and he did not immediately respond to a call seeking clarification.
Written by Dan Freed in New York
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