) -- The excitement around the
IPO is high, yet at its heart, the offering remains simply another play on the economic recovery.
In fact, buying either GM or rival
means that "75% of what you are buying is a perspective on the economy," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at Bay Area-based YCMNET Advisors, which manages about $1 billion in assets. "
If you are seeing no double dip, no high inflation, unemployment drops, then these stocks are a buy."
"People buying into
GM are late entrants in the consumer story," Yoshikami said. "If you already missed the boat on consumer stocks, this is a last chance to get in, because auto companies are the last to recover."
In general, Yoshikami prefers cheaper consumer stocks, such as
. For autos, he prefers Ford because "Ford has more opportunity in China and Ford has been overall a better run company."
While GM's offering is technically an IPO, it is not at all typical for the genre. It does not present an opportunity to buy in early on an innovative new product that will soon have consumers buzzing and technologies adapting. "We follow IPOs very closely," Yoshikami said. "Anything that has the word 'China' or 'Internet' or 'India' in the name has done well. But GM is a cash flow company -- not a hot products company -- so you'd better be buying it for fundamentals and cash flow."
Of course, while IPOs are common events, IPOs by companies that sell 11.5% of all the motor vehicles in the world and 18% of all the vehicles sold in the U.S. are not so common.
What makes General Motors an attractive option besides its market presence, is that it reduced costs in bankruptcy; it is making money at a low point in the automotive sales cycle and it is well-positioned in the world's fastest growing markets.
For the moment, GM benefits from the performance of its closest competitor, Ford, a poster child for
. Ford shares rose 334% in 2009 and are up about 62% in 2010.
Expected Thursday, GM's IPO could raise around $22.5 billion, including the sale of preferred stock, making it even larger than the 2008
IPO, which raised around $20 billion.
According to its revised registration statement filed early Wednesday, GM has 478 million shares to sell, priced between $32 and $33, amounting to about 31% of the company. Additionally, underwriters have the option to buy an additional 72 million shares, which would bring the total sale to about 550 million common shares for about $18 billion at the median price. GM is also selling about $4.6 billion worth of preferred shares.
Investors can buy GM shares once public trading begins on the New York Stock Exchange. Lead underwriters for the IPO are
. A variety of other investment firms including
Bank of America
also have allotments to sell.
However, some trading shops, including
, were not
, which means investors cannot purchase stock through these sites until NYSE trading begins.
In the third quarter, GM produced income of $2 billion -- or $1.20 a share -- on revenue of $34 billion, while Ford produced income of $1.7 billion -- or 43 cents a share -- on revenue of $29 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated Ford will earn $2.05 this year, meaning the company trades at about eight times projected earnings.
If GM's third-quarter earnings equate to a quarter of full-year earnings potential, then eight times earnings would value its stock around $38. But while Ford is a company on a roll, GM is a company with untested management and its
contributor Doug Kass has a year-end 2011 price target of $55 on GM shares. He estimates the company will earn $5.40 a share in 2011, up from $3 a share in 2010.
Casey Thormahlen, an analyst at Los Angeles-based market research company IBISWorld, said he is skeptical about GM because management is so unproven. "The products are good but
are not segment leaders, and the competition is really tough," he said. "They get their sales from people who want to buy an American car.
"GM has made some gains with their products, but there's still a lot more to do," Thormahlen said. The just-launched
Chevy Cruze, he noted, "is a good car but not as good as competitors, and
Chevy Volt is "a tough sell" at the price. The Chevy Malibu is "a decent car, well built; it has made a lot of gains in the last two years."
Edmunds.com senior analyst Michelle Krebs said
it remains to be seen whether GM has fixed itself in bankruptcy. "I'm not over the moon just yet," she said. "So far, all their new launches have done well, but we have got to see whether they have truly changed their way of doing business. "
-- Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C.
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