Foot Locker (FL) - Get Report stock is up in 2016. But the stock was down in sympathy after Shoe Carnival (SCVL) - Get Report missed earnings estimates earlier this week, taking the whole group with it.
Shoe Carnival missed on earnings, revenue and same-store sales, and it cut guidance. The stock fell 12% following the disappointment. The announcement caused investors to dump the entire footwear group: Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - Get Report , Sketchers (SKX) - Get Report , Crocs (CROX) - Get Report , Wolverine World Wide (WWW) - Get Report , DSW (DSW) - Get Report and Foot Locker were all punished.
But I think Foot Locker was unfairly dinged.
Shoe Carnival said its quarterly results were below expectations because seasonal merchandise sold poorly. The company also said it had slow sales in women's boots. Neither of those categories affects Foot Locker.
In fact, Shoe Carnival said it saw a high-single-digit comparable same-store sale increase in athletic categories in November.
On Nov. 18, Foot Locker reported third-quarter fiscal 2017 earnings of $1.13 per share, 3 cents better than the consensus estimate. Revenue rose 5.1% to $1.89 billion. Comparable-store sales increased 4.7%. Gross margin ended the quarter at 33.9%.
Same-store sales should stay strong. The company ended the quarter with strong momentum in Adidas brand footwear. Running and casual footwear increased in the high-single-digit range. Basketball footwear declined at a low-single-digit rate. Apparel increased by the mid-single digits.
The company plans to add between 50 and 60 new stores this year, mostly in Europe.
Operating margins are expanding from 12.7% in fiscal 2016 to an estimated 13% in fiscal 2018. Foot Locker continues to leverage occupancy expense since it only needs a low-single-digit comp to drive results.
Foot Locker has a $1 billion share repurchase authorization outstanding, which will help to drive double-digit earnings growth. The company should be able to grow earnings per share from $4.79 in fiscal 2017 to $5.25 in 2018.
With consistent same-store sales numbers, Foot Locker should be able to trade as high as $80 per share, or 15.2 times 2018 estimates. In my opinion, Foot Locker can rebound from the quarterly disappointment at Shoe Carnival.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.