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Here comes the energy rally.

With crude oil working on a string of solid gains, a big summer rally may be on the way. This could give the dormant energy sector quite a boost in the near term. Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Get Exxon Mobil Corporation Report , in particular, has been tracing out what may prove to be a major bottom since early February. The stock is setting up well for a healthy recovery move and remains in a fairly low-risk buy zone.

In early December, Exxon Mobil left behind an ominous spike high. The stock held in well through the end of the month but by the start of January a deep sell off had begun. By late February, shares had fallen nearly 15% and were beginning to show signs of downside exhaustion. The bottoming process began to improve dramatically in early March and by late May, it was clear the $80.00 area had proven to be a major support zone. Despite a nasty break in early June, which dropped the stock to new 2017 lows, this area held up well. As a new month gets under way, Exxon appears to be back in rally mode.

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In the near term, investors should take a more positive view of Exxon. The stock should be considered a low-risk buy near current levels. A very solid support zone is now in place between $82.00 and $81.00. On the downside, a close back below $80.00 would violate last week's low, indicating more basing is ahead. A key hurdle on the upside will be the declining 200-day moving average. This area, just above $84.00, is a very heavy supply zone. The stock's March, April, May and June highs are also near this area.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long Exxon.