(A longer version of this article originally appeared Jan. 9 at 6:37 a.m. ET on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here to get great columns like this from Jim Cramer and other writers even earlier in the trading day.)
Let's wrap up my look at 12 Dow Jones Industrial Average components that could push the key index over 20,000 by checking out Apple(AAPL) - Get Report , Cisco(CSCO) - Get Report , Walt Disney Co.(DIS) - Get Report and United Technologies(UTX) - Get Report . (Or, click here or here to read about the other eight Dow components that I'm keeping and eye on.)
AAPL is so logical to gallop here. It's got to advance a little more than 13% and it is right at a break-out level -- some $0.40 to go. However, we keep hearing that there are already cutbacks on the iPhone 7 production, and only the super-bulls think that's because the company is trying to set up for a huge iPhone 8 cycle.
I'm concerned that the company has not augmented its service-revenue stream, and I can't really understand why Apple doesn't use its cash hoard to make some acquisitions. In the meantime, the company would be a huge beneficiary of repatriation -- $40 per share of cash is overseas, and that would spur tons of debate about even bigger buybacks and dividends.
At 13x earnings, the stock's a bargain, but you have to ask, "Hasn't it been a bargain for a full year now?"
The last quarter from Cisco was a downer, especially in light of all of the strength we are seeing in optical across the board, including Juniper Networks(JNPR) - Get Report , Ciena(CIEN) - Get Report and Finisar (FNSR) - Get Report .
Cisco has to find some way to make it clear that its legacy business isn't hurting the company as the firm transitions toward more of a cloud-based system.
But let's be candid, you buy Cisco -- which my charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS owns -- because it yields 3.3%, and because it has $60 billion in cash overseas. Still, I don't think CSCO can advance 13% back to its recent highs based on either of those factors. It will take a good quarterly report first, and we won't see Cisco's latest results until Feb. 15.
Technical analyst Bruce Kamich of Real Money, our premium site for active investors, doesn't like CSCO's daily chart:
He noted in his latest analysis that "the slope of the [stock's] 50-day average line is bearish and the slope of the 200-day moving average line is starting to roll over." Click here to read more.
Disney and United Technologies
It's ironic, but the last two stocks that are more than 10% away from their highs are two that have given 'er all she's got: Disney and United Technologies. Still, they need to rally 12% and 10%, respectively, to get back to their all-time highs.
The whole narrative of Disney has changed to the point where it seems like a huge mistake to sell. After all, CEO Bob Iger has created tremendous optionality with ESPN despite the decline in subscriptions (some would say the precipitous decline).
I think DIS is what we would call an "up" stock -- because of terrific theme-park attendance and movies, not to mention a potential corporate tax cut of some magnitude. I can't believe how this stock was able to run from $93 to $109 basically on the strength of Iger saying he feels better about ESPN, but that's what happened.
United Technologies? It's going to have a tough time gaining traction from here, as it's had a magnificent run even though numbers haven't gone higher. (If anything, they've come down.)
I don't see UTX climbing to its old high of $123 any time soon. That's 10% too far.
The Bottom Line
So, there are a dozen Dow-component stocks that need to advance more than 10% just to get back to their old highs, and only in a few cases do I see it happening.
Still, the comforting fact that they've been there could come into play if they do start (or continue) to advance.
One thing's for certain, though. If these stocks have been to higher levels that weren't considered all that lofty once (with just a handful of exceptions), then you have to think that in this better environment for almost all of them, they can do it again.
, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL and CSCO.