Bloomberg

Shares of Deere (DE - Get Report) are rallying Monday, up 1.6% after the company received a bullish upgrade.

Analysts at Jefferies upgraded Deere stock to a buy rating and assigned a price target of $190. Based on its closing price from Friday, that implies about 16% upside to Deere, the suddenly red-hot agriculture and construction equipment maker.

The stock has suddenly gone from roughly $132.50 in May to $167 in June. From trough to peak, we're already talking about a 26% rally. That's no drop in the bucket, but this analyst expects the good times to keep on coming.

From my perspective, everything about DE stock seems reasonable -- nothing horrible, but nothing great. Its dividend yield of 1.85% is not dismissible nor is it monstrous. Its price-to-earnings ratio of 16 is neither cheap nor expensive, while its earnings and revenue growth expectations for this year and next year are solid. 

So what can we expect with Deere stock going forward?

Trading Deere Stock

Weekly chart of Deere stock.
Weekly chart of Deere stock.

The timing of the analyst's upgrade is surprising, given that it comes at a time where Deere stock is bumping its head on multi-year range resistance. With a few short-term exceptions, DE stock has been stuck between $135 support and resistance between $167.50 to $170.

Now up into the latter of the two ranges, Deere stock is being put in a make-or-break situation. It either needs to breakout over resistance and kickstart a rally -- potentially up to the analyst's $190 price target -- or fail at the breakout and allow resistance to remain intact. There's really no way to tell ahead of time which one it will be. Investors can only play to the reaction.

In that case, a close over $170 could be the long entry for traders looking for the breakout. If DE stock fails to break out, investors can look to buy a pullback. While it's certainly possible that Deere will decline down to range support -- after all, it was at this level just a few weeks ago -- there are other areas to be mindful of as well.

For instance, $155 has been a notable level over the past 12 months and particularly in 2019. Further, the 10-week and 50-week moving averages could be two key levels to keep an eye on as well.

So what's the bottom line? Look to buy a breakout in Deere stock should it close north of $170. If it fails to do so, see where the stock finds support. Should the 50-week fail to buoy the name, a drop down to range support is possible.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.