Apple (AAPL) - Get Report first-quarter iPhone shipments could rise 10% year-over-year thanks to a yet-to-be announced cheaper new iPhone device, according to a note from TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a good track record of predicting Apple's moves.

Kuo calls the device the iPhone SE2, which he estimates will be using the iPhone 8 design with an updated processor. This follows up a note Kuo published last week predicting that Apple will launch the new phone in the first quarter of 2020. 

He predicts that Apple could ship between 37 million and 40 million of the higher-end iPhone 11 lineup in fourth quarter 2019. Meanwhile, he also forecast Apple could ship between 36 million and 40 million of the more inexpensive models. 

"Investors worry Apple will decrease new iPhone shipment forecasts in October as the company used to," Kuo write. "But iPhone 11 series' general shipping times are currently more than two weeks, and it implies the likelihood of Apple's order cut is fading away."

Apple shares were declining 0.22% to $226.52 premarket Monday. Shares are up almost 44% this year.

Apple is a key holding in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust