Back on Aug. 1, Biogen (BIIB) - Get Report surged to new 2016 highs with the help of a huge opening gap. The stock gained over 4% that day on heavy trade. This news-inspired breakout was dwarfed by the huge gains that followed the next day. On Aug. 2, Biogen gained over 9% on its heaviest upside trade in nearly a year.
After peaking on Aug. 2 near the $33 area, Biogen immediately began to consolidate. The stock gave back roughly 50% of its initial August ramp over the next three weeks as volume dried up. In the middle of last week, Biogen weakened dramatically, breaking the lower band of the consolidation pattern in the process. In the near term, this will likely lead to lower prices -- and for patient investors, a very low-risk entry opportunity.
If Biogen falls below last week's low of $301, it's very likely a drop down to August's opening gap will follow. This level, just above $290, sits near the upper band of a major support zone. Also near upper band of this zone is the stock's May and June highs near $292. The lower band of the area is marked by the April peak as well as the 40-week moving average at $285.20. This congestion area will provide the support needed for Biogen to regain its footing after reaching an extremely overbought reading earlier this month.
Patient Biogen bulls should keep a close eye on this zone over the coming weeks. It is very seldom that stock as volatile as Biogen sets up as a low-risk buy. Between $293 and $285, it should be considered as such.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.