In November, Alcoa (AA) - Get Report officially completed its split. Arconic includes the former Alcoa's manufacturing business while the "new" Alcoa consists of the company's legacy bauxite mining, alumina processing and aluminum smelting business.
For 2017, Arconic increased its revenue guidance range to $11.8 billion to $12.4 billion from $11.6 billion to $12.2 billion, with an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 7% to 8% through 2019. Management is forecasting 15% Ebitda margin for next year and sees it growing to 17% in 2019, which represents a 1% reduction from the previous midpoint.
The company is also targeting 2 to 2.5 times net debt to adjusted Ebitda in 2019. Free cash flow is expected to be more than $350 million for 2017, increasing to approximately $700 million by 2019.
In light of this guidance, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $21 from $19, and increased its 2018 estimates by 14 cents to $1.48 a share in earnings. However, the analyst was unclear about Arconic's "[l]imited visibility into the longer-term outlook and a recent history of difficult near-term targets...," Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani wrote in a research note on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Jim Cramer and Jack Mohr, portfolio managers for Action Alerts PLUS, which holds ARNC, believe the investor meeting should be the next step in driving visibility for the business' future outlook.
"Importantly, the company cited continued productivity and market penetration increase, both of which are driving long-term growth," Cramer and Mohr wrote Thursday in a note to subscribers.
However, they added they would not be surprised to see the continued cautious commentary on 2017 expectations to weigh on the stock in the near term. However, they view "any prolong selling as nearsighted, ignoring the long-term opportunity."
Goldman Sachs says the optimistic long-term view is "overshadowed" by cautious near-term projections. The firm has a sell rating on the shares with a $16 price target.
"We flag ARNC's continued cautious commentary around commercial aerospace in the near term given its 30% exposure," wrote the Goldman analysts in a note Thursday. "We believe investors currently underestimate the potential for aero weakness to persist into 2018."
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Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long ARNC stock.