Days after Apple announced new services spanning television, games, news, financial services, investors are looking for answers on how to evaluate Apple's services businesses -- and what to expect when the new ones launch. Apple shares were up 0.50% on Friday.
Many investors were disappointed when Apple didn't disclose any pricing or bundling details for Apple TV+, its original content offering, or for Apple Arcade, a subscription games product. But investors might also look to Apple's existing services for signs of how well the new lineup will do, wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty in a note to clients on Thursday evening.
"We echo the frustration behind the lack of details on pricing, timing and bundling but would highlight that the most recent Apple service launches (Apple Music and iCloud) contributed ~1 [basis point] of Services growth in the launch year and ~3 points in the first full year after launch, on average," Huberty wrote.
Positive trends in some of Apple's existing services, and the launch of some of the new ones before this fall, mean that a slowdown in Apple's services businesses isn't likely this year, according to Huberty (she notes that consensus estimates are calling for a 6-basis point deceleration in Services revenues growth in calendar year 2019, whereas she expects a deceleration of only 2 basis points). Moreover, the trends a sign that growth in the segment could top expectations this year and next.
"We'd point to continued scaling of iCloud as the user base matures, easing App Store comps in 2H19 and the launch of some services before fall (Apple News+, Apple TV Channels, Apple Card) as reasons why a meaningful slowdown in services growth would be unlikely for the rest of 2019, and believe consensus Services estimates are too low as a result."
Apple shares are up 18.28% so far this year.
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