Anaylst Actions: EMC, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Gateway
Goldman Sachs
on Tuesday reduced estimates on a plethora of enterprise hardware companies, the big-guns of the tech world.
Analyst Laura Conigliaro cut revenue and earnings-per-share figures on
EMC
(EMC)
,
Hewlett-Packard
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,
IBM
(IBM)
,
Network Appliances
(NTAP)
,
Silicon Graphics
TheStreet Recommends
(SGI)
and
Storage Technology
(STK)
. Specifics on the depth of the revisions were not made available, but clearly, Conigliaro felt that these guys were not out of the woods yet.
"While valuations are becoming more tempting and we are getting closer to a bottom, with revenue and EPS bias still to the downside, we see little reason to rush into these stocks immediately," she wrote.
Here's a look at those revisions:
Oh, Steve Fortuna! (Insert operatic music here.)
The
Merrill Lynch
technology analyst downgraded
Gateway
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to mid-term neutral from accumulate, telling investors that more earnings revisions from the computer company would be likely. He said that consumer demand was unlikely to rebound in the second half of the year and that management was helpless to turn the ship around to deal with the dearth of demand.
"Also, and very importantly," Fortuna wrote, "we think there is a high likelihood that management significantly lowers its earnings per share outlook during its analyst meeting this week, well below the current $1.28 Street consensus. We are currently reviewing our fiscal 2001 EPS estimate of $1.42 pending the results of Gateway's analyst meeting."
So, when's Gateway's meeting? Tonight and tomorrow. And Fortuna advised investors to use the meeting as an "opportunity to exit the shares."
He also said that Merrill was likely to readjust its estimates after the meeting, but really, advising investors to sell and citing future difficulties points to more operatic difficulties for the boxmaker. The markets have acted accordingly, dropping Gateway 48 cents, or 2.7%, to $17.33.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jerry Labowitz on Tuesday downgraded
SCI Systems
(SCI)
, to intermediate-term neutral from accumulate and said many other stocks in the electronics manufacturing services, or EMS, sector are fairly valued.
SCI announced Monday it was
laying off 10% of its workforce. Labowitz had previously lowered his rating on the company to intermediate-term accumulate from buy.
He also said that at current levels,
Celestica
(CLS)
,
C-MAC Industries
(EMS)
,
Jabil Circuit
(JBL)
,
Sanmina
(SANM)
and
Solectron
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"offer investors compelling technology investments over the next 12-18 months" -- which is to say, not in the short term.
"With just about every sector of technology experiencing a significant slowdown in demand, it has become increasingly difficult to believe the leading EMS companies can grow earnings by 30%," Labowitz wrote. "We are reducing our growth estimate to about 20%. We think that most of the EMS stocks currently reflect this notion."
Despite Labowitz's near-term caution, EMS companies tend to perform pretty well in a slowdown as companies outsource manufacturing. They will do well -- just not as well as expected and should not see any significant upside movement as a result, he said.
Labowitz said that the future was still bright for EMS companies, with current levels providing an attractive entry point for 2002, once a tech recovery occurs.
"The EMS industry remains one of the fastest growing sectors of technology," Labowitz wrote, "and slowing demand at
original equipment manufacturers customers should result in more outsourcing, benefiting the EMS companies to a greater degree in the future."
In Tuesday morning trading, SCI was down $1.22, or 4.9%, to $21.83 on the
New York Stock Exchange
. Celestica was off $2.28, or 4.2%, to $51.57. C-MAC was down 20 cents, or 0.7%, to $28.45. Jabil Circuit fell $1.62, or 6.6%, to $22.78. Solectron was off 95 cents, or 3.2%, to $28.70. Sanmina was down $1.19, or 3.8%, to $29.88 on the
Nasdaq
.
Again is a rather special word. It changes everything. Consider the case of
Texas Instruments
(TXN)
.
After lowering its first-quarter outlook, again, it got shellacked by brokerage Merrill Lynch, which reduced its 2001 fiscal estimate -- again. Yesterday, Merrill cut its 2001 earnings estimate to a range between 95 cents and $1 a share from $1.11 a share.
Well, now it's
Credit Suisse First Boston's
turn to reduce Texas Instrument's estimates -- again. CSFB analyst Charlie Glavin cut his estimates on Texas Instruments for the second time in two weeks, cutting much deeper and harder than Merrill did. The fiscal 2001 forecast was dropped to 77 cents a share from 92 cents on revenue of $10.4 billion, down from the previous $11.4 billion.
"While TI may be nearing a bottom," Glavin wrote, "we believe the stock could be dead money for at least another quarter or so until visibility, capacity, and looming pricing issues are resolved."
Upgrades
Luxottica
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: UP to buy from accumulate at Merrill Lynch.
Downgrades
Extreme Networks
(EXTR)
: DOWN to buy from strong buy at Lehman Brothers.
Foundry Networks
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: DOWN to buy from strong buy at Lehman Brothers.
Nike
(NKE)
: DOWN to hold from buy at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Initiations
Netegrity
(NETE)
: NEW buy at UBS Warburg.
