Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN - Get Report) is trading between its 50-day simple moving average at $1,601.17 and its 200-day simple moving average at $1,719.16, which is the buy zone as the stock is trading below its pre-earnings levels of Jan. 31 when it closed at $1,718.73. The stock traded as high as $1,777.17 in reaction to earnings; this has upside potential to my semiannual risky level at $1,782.25. Amazon has a positive weekly chart, which is another reason to buy now.
Shares closed Monday up 0.44%. Amazon ended last week at $1,626.23, up a solid 8.3% so far in 2019. This put the stock in bear market territory 20.7% below its all-time intraday high of $2,050.50 set on Sept. 4. More important is that the stock is in bull market territory, up 24.4% from its Dec. 24 low of $1,307.00. The takeaway is that Amazon has been a buy since Jan. 7 when it first moved out of bear market territory.
Whenever a stock reverses direction in after-hours trading, the price action does not appear on the daily and weekly charts. That does not mean that the stock cannot be traded.
The spike higher for Amazon was a positive reaction to the top of the news that the stock beat earnings-per-share estimates. They earned $6.04 per share well above the $5.55 consensus. This extended Amazon's winning streak to six consecutive quarters.
Amazon gave cautious guidance for its first-quarter results, which caused the share price reversal. I still view the stock as the "United States of Amazon" as longer-term growth seems highly likely. Amazon Web Services will remain the global cloud computing leader. Advertising dollars should continue to rise. Consumers enjoy shopping at Whole Foods supermarkets. Amazon Prime memberships should continue to grow.
Daily Chart for Amazon
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The daily chart for Amazon does not show the spike higher to $1,777.17 after the close on Jan. 31. Such a move was just shy of my semiannual risky level of $1,782.25, which is my first upside target now. The stock has been between its 50-day simple moving average at $1,601.17 and its 200-day simple moving average of $1,719.41, which is a short-term trading range. The Dec. 31 close of $1,501.97 was an important input to my proprietary analytics and resulted in the horizontal lines. My annual value level is $1,316.06 with my semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1,782.25 and $1,947.78. The Jan. 31 close of $1,718.73 resulted in the monthly risky level at $1,863.84. My weekly value level is $1,544.77.
Weekly Chart for Amazon
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
Amazon has a positive weekly chart, given last week's close above its five-week modified moving average of $1,624.11. The stock remains well above its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $1,009.23. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 61.30 last week, up from 54.36 on Jan. 25. This is an important reason to stay long the stock.
Trading Strategy: Buy Amazon down to its 50-day simple moving average at $1,601.17 as the minimum upside is to its 200-day SMA at $1,719.44. Longer-term my upside targets are my semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1,782.25, $1,863.84 and $1,947.78, respectively.
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