A convergence of factors may have Wall Street expecting way too much from the digital beast's first quarter earnings on Apr. 26. Hence, the stock could very easily sell off on the news.
For one, Netflix's (NFLX) - Get Report first quarter blew Wall Street out of the water, causing its stock to surge. No doubt some Netflix stock fans read through to Amazon's streaming business being rather strong to kick off the year, too. Further, Wall Street has jacked up their profit estimates on Amazon's quarter in part as its performance a year ago at this time was mixed.
TheStreet stumbled across a preview note (below) from Jefferies that we think perfectly captures the overly bullish mood on Amazon into its report.
"Amazon capped 2017 with a solid print (beat on all major metrics for Q4) but soft margin guidance / higher investment levels for 1Q18 drove its stock down over the first two weeks post earnings. Year-to-date the stock is up 23% (second best performance among Large Cap names in our coverage universe) vs. +3% for the NASDAQ and -1% for the S&P 500. Revisions sentiment has been predominantly positive with almost all shops raising their price target since the Q4 print. Short interest in the stock, among the lowest in our group, reached a multi-year (2+) low in the end of March despite the ongoing media assault from the current administration. The company faces a relatively easy comp (+23% in 1Q17) and Street is modeling +40% (+36% adjusted for FX guidance). Off of their recent highs, valuation multiples currently stand at ~21x '19 EBITDA and ~2.5x '19 Revenue. EV/EBITDA is just 0.2 std dev above its 10-year historical mean of 19.8x while EV/Sales is 2.0 std dev above its 1.6x hist mean. However, on a growth-adjusted basis, both multiples remain below the current averages for our coverage universe (0.57 EV/EBITDA to Growth and 0.10 EV/Sales to Growth vs. comps of 0.81 and 0.43, respectively)."
Amazon is a holding in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS.