Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.
From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.
Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.
While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis.
Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market.
- Nearest Resistance: $9
- Nearest Support: $8.95
- Catalyst: Acquisition
Shares of small-cap biopharmaceutical stock Raptor Pharmaceutical (RPTP) are up 20% this afternoon, boosted by news that the firm is being bought by Horizon Pharma(HZNP) - Get Report in an $800 million deal that pays shareholders $9 per share in cash. The deal adds Raptor's rare disease treatments to Horizon's portfolio of drugs, and Horizon plans on financing the deal through a combination of debt and cash on hand.
From a technical standpoint, the money's already been made on the Raptor trade. Shares popped to within a few cents of their acquisition price almost immediately this morning, indicating that shareholders see a very high probability of the transaction being completed. Investors should look elsewhere for upside opportunities this week.
- Nearest Resistance: $5
- Nearest Support: $4.40
- Catalyst: Macro Environment
From a technical standpoint, Santander is down, but it's not out. This stock kicked off a well-defined uptrending channel at the end of June, and shares have been holding up well within that price channel in the intervening months. As Santander moves toward a test of the bottom of its trend line, investors should look out for a buying opportunity on the next bounce higher.
- Nearest Resistance: $31
- Nearest Support: $29.25
- Catalyst: Technical Setup
GE's price trajectory has actually been under pressure since mid-June, when shares peaked only to consolidate sideways for the entire month of August. Friday's gap lower signals the potential for more extended downside risk in GE from here.
In the intermediate term, shares' next meaningful support level comes into play down at $29.25, a price floor last tested earlier in the summer. It makes sense to stay away from the long side of GE until shares are able to catch a bid at that level again.
All in, while we approve of the strategic direction that these deals help push forward, we recognize that additive manufacturing is a long-term play and that Arcam and SLM will not have noticeable impacts in the near future. We are excited about the potential, but remain grounded in our expectations given the long road ahead.
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
- Nearest Resistance: N/A
- Nearest Support: N/A
- Catalyst: Market Rebound
The broad market is rebounding this afternoon, and that's spelling a big-volume drop in the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX) - Get Report . VXX is one of the most popular ways for retail investors to get exposure to the VIX Volatility Index, a gauge of market volatility that has a negative correlation with the S&P 500. Today's 0.8% rebound in the S&P is fueling the big volume 3.3% drop in VXX. Longer-term, VXX's trend is clearly lower. Unless you're using it as a short-term hedge, it makes sense to avoid this exchange traded note for the time being.
An important note about this exchange-traded note is the fact that VXX doesn't have conventional support and resistance levels like a normal stock. Since the price action in VXX is determined by a statistical formula, not directly supply and demand from market participants, it's important not to try to use conventional technical tools on this unique exchange-traded note. But as long as the uptrend in the S&P remains intact, you don't want to own VXX.
- Nearest Resistance: N/A
- Nearest Support: $7
- Catalyst: Analyst Upgrade
Chesapeake Energy(CHK) - Get Report is up nearly 5% on big volume this afternoon, boosted following a higher price target from SunTrust. The financial firm boosted its price target to $11, an upgrade that implies the potential for a nearly 40% rally from here. SunTrust pointed to Chesapeake's improved financial health as a driver of the higher target price.
Chesapeake's technical setup is helping to fuel upside today. Shares actually broke out last Thursday, clearing an important technical resistance level at $7. Now, with that $7 price ceiling behind it, Chesapeake is free to make a prolonged move toward higher ground. While shares are up considerably in the last few months, there's still time to take advantage of the trend and buy Chesapeake here.
- Nearest Resistance: $95
- Nearest Support: $87.50
- Catalyst: Activist Letter
$12.7 billion drug maker Perrigo (PRGO) - Get Report is up more than 6% on big volume this afternoon, boosted following news that the firm is being targeted by activist investor Starboard Value. Starboard has built a 4.6% stake in Perrigo that's worth nearly $600 million at current price levels -- and the fund is pushing for Perrigo to sell is prescription drug business and royalty interest in MS drug Tysabri. Starboard's seven-page open letter to Perrigo's board was published today.
Technically speaking, Perrigo's price action is still pointing lower despite the bounce today. Shares have spent the last few months forming a textbook descending triangle, a bearish continuation pattern that triggers a sell signal on a violation of support down at $87.50. It makes sense to keep a close eye on whether Starboard's intervention will be able to stir enough buying pressure to break shares free of their bearish price setup in September.
- Nearest Resistance: $5.90
- Nearest Support: $5.40
- Catalyst: Analyst Note
Finnish mobile infrastructure stock Nokia(NOK) - Get Report is seeing big volume to start the week, slowly making its way higher during Monday's session following a lower open along with other Eurozone stocks. The attention in Nokia is being driven by an analyst note from Swedish financial firm SEB, which sees Nokia outperforming Ericsson(ERIC) - Get Report on the top-line in the second half of the year.
From a technical standpoint, Nokia looks bullish in the long-term. Shares have been carving out a classic reversal pattern for most of 2016, signaling a potential change-over to upside if shares can break above the $5.90 level. Shares are within grabbing distance of that breakout level this week.
Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.