Not enough to worry about?
In Tuesday's Kass Insider I remarked that there are a number of factors contributing to my cautious near-term market view:
- Narrow Market Leadership. We're back to a market that's basically led by the FAANGs -- Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) , Apple (AAPL) , Netflix (NFLX) and Google/Alphabet (GOOG) , (GOOGL) . Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS.
- Rising Short-Term Interest Rates. The 2-year U.S. note yield is up about 1.3 basis points at 2.39%.
- Complacency. I'm seeing more investor complacency -- anecdotally, in the business media and elsewhere -- ever since market's main indices rallied off of their recent lows.
- Lackluster Banks. We're seeing disappointing action in the financials. However, I continue to buy them. I'm long Bank of America (BAC) , Citigroup (C) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) , although I'm shorting Goldman Sachs (GS) .
Today I wanted to add two more factors that are contributing to my short-term bearishness:
- Leadership From Oil Stocks. Oil stocks have been the leading (non-FANG) sector in the stock market over the last few days/weeks. This is obviously in response to the rise in crude oil prices. Historically, a market being led by oil stocks is close to a top of what we can characterize as a mature Bull Market.
- Rising Commodities Prices. As noted by my pal Peter Boockvar this morning, the CRB commodity index has broken out and now sits at the highest level since October 2015. It's not only oil -- nickel, aluminum and other non-precious metals are rising. Peter also relates that the U.S. 10-year inflation breakeven is up by almost 1 basis point -- and at the highest level since September 2014. As noted earlier, the two-year U.S. note yield is now over 2.42%.