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NEW YORK ( TheStreet) --  Goldman Sachs has made many extreme oil calls in the past -- like its call for oil to hit $150 to $200 a barrel. But today's call, that oil could slump to $20 a barrel on forecast oversupply, is sinking the price of oil: crude oil is down to $44.92, this morning (2% down). And the oversupply forecast is being exacerbated by a potential ramp up of Iranian oil production in 2016. Having said that, Goldman expects the market will adjust its production, which should lead to a bottom in oil over the next six to nine months. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency predicts that the markets will see the biggest reduction in non-OPEC supply in more than two decades as producers try to support prices.

U.S. equity futures were trading modestly lower this morning, with the Fed interest rate decision continuing to hang over the market.

Positive economic reports came out of Japan -- as its Business Survey Index showed solid gains from the second quarter, and Italy -- where industrial output rose 1.1%, the strongest gain in a year.

Some earnings reports of note today: Mattress Firm (MFRM), Brady (BRC), and Kroger (KR).

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On the domestic economic docket, we have the August PPI Final Demand at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus forecasting a drop of 0.1%. At 10 a.m. ET, the University of Michigan preliminary September Sentiment report will be released, and at 1 p.m. ET, the Baker Hughes rig count will hit the wires.

Happy Trading!


  • Oil prices fell as Saudi Arabia dismissed the idea of a summit to discuss ways to defend prices. October Brent, the global oil benchmark, fell $0.65 to $48.24 a barrel Friday morning, after it settled up $1.31, or 2.8%, on Thursday.
  • Chinese outstanding yuan loans grew at 15.4% last month on an annual basis, slightly slower than forecast by analysts polled by Reuters, who had expected outstanding loans to rise by 15.6%.
  • European Central Bank (ECB) board member Benoit Coeure said that growth in the eurozone is still too weak to create the number of jobs needed and that the central bank's attention should shift from inflation to growth for the moment. "When inflation is weak, the best way to bring it up to the 2% objective is to support economic activity," Coeure said in a newspaper interview. "Today, therefore, growth and employment are prerequisites for price stability."
  • Japanese business sentiment turned positive in July-September, a survey showed, bringing some relief after a string of downbeat data. An index gauging sentiment at large manufacturers stood at plus 11.0 in July-September, rebounding from minus 6.0 in the previous quarter. Companies plan to raise capital expenditure by 6.1% over the business year that started in April, revised up from the previous poll's 5.9%.
  • Construction output in the U.K. fell unexpectedly in July, when it shrank by 1% vs. analyst expectations that it would increase by 0.5%. A major driver of the decline was a year-on-year fall in the amount of new housing being built, which dropped by 2.5%, the first decline since March 2013. Construction of public housing plunged by 15.6%; the 0.8% growth in private construction was the slowest since March 2013.