Shares of Starbucks (SBUX) - Get Report broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern in April this year and rallied over 12% to their June high. The pattern projected the measured move up to the $65.00 area but having made that historic high they have retreated back to the initial $57.50 breakout level, retracing all of their previous gains. This level is now being reinforced by the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci retracement support, and its integrity will be crucial to reversing the downtrend in the stock price.
The five-month triangle pattern can be seen on the daily chart followed by the nearly perfect measured move. A dark cloud cover candle pattern marked the June high and the stock quickly dropped back to the breakout level, which is also the 50% retracement level of the 2016 low and the 2017 high range. The 200-day moving average is entering this zone supplying additional support and adding further technical significance to the area. Moving average convergence/divergence is tracking lower but the reading on the histogram is improving, and the relative strength index is bouncing off its oversold level. Chaikin money flow is in negative territory but the money flow index, a volume-weighted relative strength measure, has moved out of an oversold condition and is above its 21-period moving average.
There's a strong technical case to be made for a bounce in the stock price as it nears the support zone, and traders should be alert for reversal candles, such as hammers or bullish engulfing candles. On the other hand, if the 200-day moving averages decisively is broken it would signal the start of a second phase in decline that could retest 2016 lows.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.