Doug Kass fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
- How the term winner can depend on the vantage point.
- How J.C. Penney is doing.
Visit here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Doug Kass'--and reader comments--in real time.
My Takeaways and Observations
"If it is what you say I love it...."
- Donald Trump Jr
Risk Happens Fast -- and the reverberations of Tuesday's disclosures may weigh on the markets for a while as the administration's initiatives get further lost in the bowels of Washington D.C.
The Carnage in Retail -- is it an opportunity or game ender?
Watch JCP debt prices to determine whether to invest in the stock.
Back long SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) - Get Report -- in a small way. I like that GLD breached support of $115 and rather than tank, regained that support and is close to $116. Also the junior mining ETFs were strong Wednesday.
Drink with Jim ... and learn in late July at Bar San Miguel in Brooklyn!
A Trump related dip -- now flattish with Qs agains over Ss. I suspect Sir Arthur Cashin was right -- the delay in the Congressional recess may have aided the markets.
* The U.S. dollar weakened and is now near a multimonth low.
* The price of crude oil rose by +$0.74 to over $45.
* Gold rallied by +$2.40.
* Ag commodities consolidated yesterday's large gains. Wheat +1, corn -1, soybeans +2.50 and oats+2.
* Bonds fell by one basis point in yield.
* The 2s/10s spread was unchanged at 98 basis points.
* Little movement in municipals or high yield bonds.
* Banks were lower from the get go. I have been adding to my financial shorts this week -- as posted.
* Brokerages caught a bid.
* Autos continue to rally.
* So does ag equipment
* Speculative biotech recovered from Monday's hit.
* Big Pharma was lower.
* Mixed media.
* Old tech had a small bid.
* Optical was sold.
* Homebuilders sold off after making 2017 high Wednesday.
* Retail rallied a bit from Wednesday's schmeissing. (I discussed the sector in my opening missive). I tried to add to Dillard's (DDS) - Get Report but missed on price when it fell in the early going. Rallied later on.
* Little movement in (T)FAANG Thursday
* In individual stocks, TWTR was a standout. (I added Thursday).
Here are some value added contributions on our site today:
1. Jim "El Capitan" Cramer delivers a strong analysis on retail.
2. Ulta Beauty's woes described by Ed Ponsi "Scheme." Sic transit gloria.
3. Rev's take on Jr's message and that of Jamie Dimon.
Position: Long CPB SDS SDS calls SQQQ HIG AGN TWTR DDS XLE GLD Short SPY QQQ DIS AAPL C BAC JPM MS GS.
Originally published July 11 at 3:18 p.m. EST
Quick CFO Exit Isn't a Penney From Heaven
After the close of trading Monday, J.C. Penney announced the abrupt departure of its CFO. Needless to say, the quick exit of a CFO is usually a worrisome development; it is almost never a good thing.
The move surprised the Street.
JCP always has been far above the pack on investor relations and I think it is significant that an earnings change was not made concurrent to the CFO announcement. But, that is the only positive I can find.
It should be noted that a major credit agreement was inked in late June. The stock traded off only slightly on Monday, but with a market cap of less than $1.3 billion that is hardly a cause for cheer.
Hopefully, further details will be forthcoming.
The bond and credit markets probably will be helpful in providing trading clues on JCP. Given the interest expressed, I certainly will be mining them.
From my perch (I took my relatively small loss earlier in the year at higher prices), the disruptions in retail delay the investment case (read: deleveraging) for the company. That said, the $4 price is an option on survivability of the retailer.
Originally published July 11 at 8:59 a.m. EST
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Action Alerts PLUS, which Jim Cramer manages as a charitable trust, is long Allergan.