So let's see: Two more analysts announced on Monday that May same-store sales will be stable. For weeks we've heard that consumer spending and confidence is moderating and the worst may be over for the retail sector.
But what does all this "stabilization" really mean?
Essentially, it's that dismal declines experienced in the retail sector's fourth-quarter will be less disappointing in the future.
And while this is hardly anything to get too excited about, such optimism --
along with better-than-expected April consumer spending report
-- sent shares of retailers rallying on Monday.
The S&P Retail Index rose 6% to 337.87, led by a 7% jump at
to $42.10, a 13% gain at
to $13.26, and a 13% rise at
"Even with the earlier Memorial Day holiday somewhat easing comparisons, and materially warmer weather throughout most of the country,
May should see another month of weak results, as consumers remain focused on value and compelling items," Eric Beder, analyst at Brean Murray Carret, wrote in a note on Monday.
In the teen sector, the only clear winner will be
, Beder said, as fashion and strategic pricing remain on track.
American Eagle Outfitters
should achieve negative single-digit comps, which is nothing to write home about, while
Abercrombie & Fitch
by Beder on the belief that May will provide zero signs of a recovery.
, Old Navy is expected to continue to be the bright spot. Traffic-driving promotions, such as $1 flip-flops, are solidifying the brand's position as a destination for family value-priced merchandise, Susquehanna Financial analyst Thomas Filandro wrote in a note on Monday.
Looking forward, June is not expected to be much better. On a meteorological note, Citi analyst Kimberly Greenberger said last week that June follows four consecutive months of favorable warm weather, which will likely pull some of the month's potential sales. June is also expected to be cooler and wetter, and is competing against last year's boost from rebate checks.
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