This ongoing retail rally is about lower gasoline prices, which are clearly coming, and the possibility that we could have our single biggest asset -- our house -- not losing value. Plus, it is about hurricanes and the impact on homes and oil or lack thereof.
First, it is pretty amazing and a sign of how much oil is sloshing around that oil can't be up on a day when there is a powerful hurricane going toward the Gulf, we are getting into the colder months, the Saudis are talking about cutting production and the Treasury is printing gobs of money. That's the deflationary thing again, and it's not going away. It could be accelerating if you look at this market, although I think that's wrong.
Second, the hurricanes are going to unleash a huge amount of insurance money, so
are going to be the beneficiaries. That could bridge these businesses until housing bottoms.
Of course, lower mortgage rates -- which are going to occur -- also add to disposable income.
This is an exciting moment, because any rally is going to bring out sidelined capital and make things more liquid. You need to remember that on July 15, the BKX bottomed intraday at 46.52; it is now at 72.57. No, the crisis hasn't passed for the banks, but does anyone believe things are better?
How about this: HGX was at 93.75; now it is at 137! Hard to repeal that, either.
These are positives that enable banks to refinance to make more mortgages at lower prices, thanks to
. That's why so many stocks are bouncing.
I need you all to recall that a few days ago, the July 15 lows were in jeopardy. I was already back on the red-hot griddle. The bears here and everywhere were ready to pounce.
Now, while not in hibernation, they are beginning to realize that with this takeover, we only have
to fix. Lehman is looking like a takeunder; same with WM. But that will certainly not be bad to get them out of the place. Right now, there is an amazing amount of momentum that AIG or C can seize.
From here on in, it is their own fault.
: No, tech shouldn't bounce. That ain't going to happen. It is a
day, not a
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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