Now that the COVID-19 lockdowns have eased, Wedbush sees signs of a "substantial deceleration" in user engagement. That could mark "a turning point for a company that has continually defied gravity since its IPO," the firm said.
The post-pandemic era "will require the company to generate its own momentum through savvy marketing and compelling new products," analyst James Hardiman said.
Peloton shares at last check were off 2.5% at $116.91.
Gym reopenings are playing a role in Wedbush's more bearish outlook as consumers look to get back into their pre-pandemic workout routines.
The at-home fitness company says total workouts on the platform grew to 171 million in the first quarter, more than triple the 48 million in the year-earlier quarter.
As of May 2021, Peloton members averaged 26 workouts per month, and the company said its internal reviews showed the platform made members feel happier, improved their mental health and helped them become more productive at work.
Peloton has been on the offensive in recent quarters, unveiling new products and features designed to keep people on the program.
Last month, Peloton unveiled a corporate wellness program for employees of companies in the U.S., U.K., Canada and Germany, with plans to expand to Australia later this year.