For years, export-led economic growth has been the strategy to advance many Asian and developing economies. But it's not a policy generally associated with economic advancement in the U.S., home to the world's largest GDP and domestic market.
Still, a nearly 25% decline in the value of the dollar vs. the euro over the past year is producing the benefits of a cheap-currency export policy.
components with international exposure have been notable beneficiaries. At
, a more favorable exchange rate enhanced sales about 4%, or $200 million.
said a cheaper dollar added about 23% to its European sales, sales that would have risen by only 3% had exchange rates held steady.
A lower dollar helped
snap a prettier earnings picture. Kodak said first-quarter earnings and sales would have actually come in negative had it not been for the favorable exchange rate. And relatively cheaper Post-Its and tape products in foreign markets boosted sales at
The dollar's decline has helped line corporations' coffers. Should June
Dollar Index Futures
(DXM3:NYBOT) break contract lows, the measured-move objective shown in the following chart suggests the greenback could shed another 5%, a decline that would continue the trend of adding to multinationals' bottom lines.
The major averages and index futures are behaving well since
following through off the March 12 low.
If the dollar remains in a downtrend, look for favorable exchange rates to continue boosting overseas sales and supporting the averages.
Even though gasoline prices haven't come down at the pump as precipitously as they have at the wholesale level or at the New York Mercantile Exchange, lower energy prices will eventually serve as an economic boon. Economists calculate that the $10 waterfall in crude oil prices during March will collectively add tens of billions in spending power to consumers' wallets.
Since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, greater discretionary income will add breadth to sectors such as retail, potentially adding fuel to the rally.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration said that a surge in imports resulted in a much larger-than-expected build in crude oil inventories, a situation I've written about in the recent past. June
(CLM3:NYBOT) touched new four-month lows Thursday, and it's now one of the strongest downside momentum markets.
(HUM3:NYMEX) is similar in the respect that it's also a leading downside momentum market. Look to sell pull-ups in both these markets.
(KCM3:NYBOT) eased for a second day after running into a very tight confluence of retracement resistance at 66.25. Coffee's recent surge ahead of the Brazilian winter is a seasonal effect that gives this market an upside bias. Look for Coffee to pull back for one to five days before continuing to fresh multimonth highs. Support levels reside at 63.40 and 62.60.
Six consecutive higher closes and a flat finish Thursday work to define July
(SBN3:NYBOT) as a nascent momentum market. Two expansion bars and two laps within the past seven days contribute to the critical mass of five such signals within a one-month time span, required to identify such situations. This kind of early inertia off an intermediate-term low suggests Sugar could test contract highs.
Marc Dupee is an independent trader and co-author of the book
The Best: Conversations With Top Traders. Dupee was formerly markets analyst and futures editor for TradingMarkets Financial Group. At time of publication, he was long sugar, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to
TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.