So much of today's financial "news" is not news at all. It is basically the same report on a stock, the market or industry sector, written by the first "someone" which is then repackaged, rescripted and reported as if that story was the original article. Thus, most of the time, if you read one article, you've read them all!
Most of the financial reporting today is not worthy of more than a glance at it, "Evelyn Wood"-style perusing. Rarely does any article offer any money making information that is not already known to the market. Most articles however are written as if the author was "spot on" with his/her stock projections prior to the move the stock made, the move which caused it to be worthy of their effort. Managing your way around this at times arrogant false bravado crowd can be accomplished once again by employing your ally, that "speed reading" ability.
What I do is the opposite of regurgitating yesterday's news, repackaged as if it were prescient. I write in an attempt to tell you something you don't know, sticking my neck out about as far as I can. I write in an attempt to give you a possible look today at tomorrow's headlines.
When I write about a trade set up, that trade has been tested from every possible angle I know as I reflect back on my trading experience. The fundamentals have been picked over nitty-gritty like and the technicals scanned with the trained sense I have honed from 35+ years of options trading experience. Even after that point, where the trade has passed my muster, has the life of that trade only just begun and the performance of the trade about to be tested.
The stock market is now overbought on the short term. That is what my sentiment indicators are saying and I must deal with what they "say". Thus, timing the market now, as well as knowing as best I can what condition the overall market is in, will be key to successful trading now as any overbought condition can cause a quick turn to the downside.
What I think the market will do between now and the time it corrects this short-term overbought condition is to continue to move sideways as it goes through sector rotation. I do expect money to rotate into the tech sector, especially into the premier semiconductor stock we know as Intel ( (INTC) - Get Report; $21.46 close as of 12/17). I have recommended two trades in INTC so far, one a frontspread that is lower in value and the other a closed out, nicely profitable trade (see "The Conviction List Effect" and "Don't Get Blinded by Volume"). Both trades were bullish setups using calls. I am still confident that the frontspread trade will turn positive before expiration.
INTC has been a frustrating stock for so many years. While not alone in that category (Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Report comes to mind!), INTC is so cheap today that it boggles my mind and toggles my charts. INTC has no debt to speak of, $4.00 per share in cash, producing the best semis money can buy, forward-wise management and yet about half the analysts who are paid to follow INTC think it is a Hold and not a Buy! Analysts do not get compensated for giving Hold ratings! They do however, get shown the exit door when being wrong enough of the time. They also run in herds as animals that flee instead of fight will do. When they do turn as a herd, bullish on INTC, you want to already be ahead of them as the shock-pop up for INTC at that point in market time should be very rewarding!
INTC, as of today, is a contrarian's dream-team stock! However, merely being a contrarian is not a guarantee of trading success! Timing the turn when suddenly everyone wants to join your contrary trade is another story -- a positive one. Using call options to speculate on that potential is one major reason to trade options. You control the total risk while having the chance for excellent potential rewards.
Trade: Buy to open 5 INTC March 21 calls for $1.15.
The risk is the total premium cost of the trade ($575.00). As always, I will monitor the trade in the commentary section on this site.
At the time of publication, Skip Raschke held no positions in the stocks or issues mentioned.
Skip is a former registered options trader and member of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. He was an equity options analyst and broker with Paine Webber and a proprietary trader for Van Der Moolen. He served in the USMC, as well as played minor league baseball with the N.Y. Yankees organization. He is an independent stock and options market consultant.
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