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The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.



) -- Our strategic mindset is somewhat bearish on

JPMorgan Chase

(JPM) - Get Free Report

, given the fact that the


Chairman's meeting could hurt the company if he is hawkish or dovish.

If the Fed continues to devalue the dollar, this could continue to push the price of precious metals up, and JPM has a major short position in silver. If comments are hawkish, this should put a negative bias on the overall markets and banking sector. We see value in this particular option tactic out to July.

Commit Criteria: According to our intelligence gathering, JPM has a predicament on its hands, given its short in the silver markets, and they are also at risk of the overall markets correcting if the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy. We think the risk/ reward here is in our favor.

Tactic: Buying to open 10 July 43 puts @ $1.07 or better ($107 per contract)

Tactical Employment:

Buying to open 10 JPM July 43 puts @1.07

For a net debit

Maximum risk: $107 per contract

Breakeven point: JPM at $41.93 on July 15, 2011

Mid-course guidance: Today's Fed conference should be interesting, and hopefully, the Chairman can give some real clarity into their policies going forward. We have some time here and think we will have an opportunity to get out for a profit in the Primary Top Gun Options model portfolio prior to July expiration.

Profitability goal: We will look to sell these puts @ 2.00 (87%) profit

Stop Loss: We would not look to eject until these puts were trading @ .20 (81%) loss

Exit Strategy:

Sell 10 JPM July 43 Puts @ 2.00

For a net credit

Firing line: We believe Uncle Ben's first ever live press conference will be a non-event, but JPM's large long is a risk and we're looking to take advantage of it. To see this trade managed in the Primary model portfolio, click