The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- Even though the market has pulled into a rest stop in recent days, we're taking a longer term view on a company I used to work for:
Strategic mindset: Bullish
The Dow Jones Industrial Index has pulled back to support at the previous January highs of 12,000. While higher crude prices have put pressure on stocks this week it is important to acknowledge that oil is 30% lower than the 2008 levels. The next level of support after the extended Dow run is 11,600 then the 11,200 breakout area.
Target: FedEx (FDX), Trading Thursday at $90
Commit Criteria: Solid price support sits at the December $88 breakout gap. That was the apex of the technical formation that projected an $18 rally to target $106. A more than 10% FDX drop on rising oil price concerns makes this a good pullback opportunity to buy October options with 240 days of time to develop. The stock is set up to gain on recovery as it had been a leader in the Dow and has now dropped behind in performance over the last three months. FedEx and
United Parcel Service
tend to foretell economic growth or pullbacks, and we feel that the recent pullback is a buying opportunity even though we think the market is a little rich. But we're not fighting the tape.
Tactic: Long Call
Buy 1 FDX October $80 call.
Net debit of $15.00 or better
Risk = $7.50.
Reward = Unlimited
Profit exit: 50% profit, $21.60 profit level. Then reset profit exit to $17.75 (25%).
Loss exit: 50% of premium; $7.20.
Threats to success: General market decline or oil price explosion. This is obviously a significant risk with the turmoil in the Middle East and Iranian warships cruising to areas they haven't sailed since the revolution.
If the option increases in value from the entry price of $15.00 to a price of $21.60 that is the 50% profit level. At that point, raise the stop loss protection to $17.75. If the option goes back down in value, the exit will then be at the 25% profit level to lock in profits.
Exit: Close trade by selling FDX Oct $80 call for a credit.
Portfolio Allocation: We allocate roughly $5,000 per trade to our Primary model portfolio in determining the number of contracts traded. Consequently we will be trading three contracts based on this trade alert.
Firing Line: To see how this trade performs in our model portfolio,
Happy Hunting and make sure you hedge!
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.