Those who were looking to avoid the draft for the Vietnam war fled north of the U.S. border more than 30 years ago. Now, hoping to avoid the financial risks of war in Iraq, asset allocators also appear to be on the run north, this time to the perceived safety of the Canadian dollar.
The risks and the reasons for the northern flights are different. Draft dodgers were avoiding conscription. Today's asset allocators want to avoid market risk. The common ground they found was in Canada.
Why Canada? If you look around the globe, Canada provides some of the safest fundamentals around. Short-term interest rates are running slightly higher than 3% -- unimpressive, but among the best available in the Western world. And while gross domestic product isn't expected to match last year's 3.4% rate, it's still on track to post the best growth of the G7 industrialized economies.
(CDM3:CME) rallied Friday while former haven currency favorites --
futures (ECM3:CME) and
(SFM3:CME) -- lapped lower for a third consecutive session. Friday's move higher also coincides with a bounce off key support and maintains the symmetry that continues to classify Canadian dollars as a bull market.
Also notice how the Canadian dollar had an expansion of the range when it triggered -- as if on cue, classically on day three of the pullback -- by trading above the high of the low bar in the pullback.
Price often precedes news. President Bush's proclamation from the Azores Sunday that the "moment of truth is at hand" appears to make an Iraqi invasion likely to commence as soon as this week. Friday's rally in the Canadian dollar indicates that participants are getting a jump on the latest saber-rattling comments. And the move, which occurred while the former favorite haven, the euro FX futures, slumped, highlighted the fact that the preferred vehicle for asset allocators over an uncertain weekend was the Canadian dollar.
Trading in electronic markets late Sunday evening is supportive of a continuation move in the Canadian dollar for early this week. Gold is up more than $6 an ounce, crude oil is up more than $1 a barrel and June
(ZBM3:CBOT) are up half a point.
E-mini S&P 500 futures
(ESM3:CME) are down more than 10 handles.
Hogs and Bulls Primed for Slaughter
(LHJ3:CME) have nearly achieved the first
countertrend objective at 53.000, a pop that has come on a bounce following the completion of a measured move.
Because this is a countertrend upswing, take profits on at least a portion of any position at the first objective at 53.000. The three pullups in the downtrend since Christmas have been uncannily symmetrical, leading me to believe the dynamic bear cycle in this market will repeat and result in this fourth symmetrical pullup traveling into the next target zone around 54.000 to 54.250.
Hogs have finished higher for four days since their March 10 closing low, priming them to trigger out of a pullup-from-a-low setup and resume their downward trajectory.
(FCK3:CME) have also pulled up from a downtrend for the past three days and are gearing for a trade out of a pullup-from-a-low setup. Feeders held on a closing basis below a confluence of Fibonacci resistance at 77.000 to 77.250, leaving a tail.
However, the intraday break above the projection resistance (point H on the chart) suggests this market still has sufficient strength to continue correcting to the next upside target in the 78.025 to 78.150 area. Be on the lookout for intraday short setups in both zones.
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Marc Dupee is an independent trader and co-author of the book
The Best: Conversations With Top Traders. Dupee was formerly markets analyst and futures editor for TradingMarkets Financial Group. At time of publication, he was long T-bonds and short E-mini S&Ps, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to
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