BTIG’s Camilo Lyon didn’t offer a price target, but previously had a target of $177.
Nike shares on Monday fell 2.8% to $159.06 at last check. It has slid 6% over the past month.
“Work we have done across the supply chain coupled with checks with our retail contacts point to severe supply chain disruptions emanating from the COVID-driven factory shutdowns in Vietnam that have worsened since the company last reported [earnings] June 24,” Lyon wrote in a commentary.
“The risk of significant cancellations beginning this holiday and running through at least next spring has risen materially for Nike," Lyon said. “It is now facing at least two months of virtually no unit production at its Vietnamese factories, which accounted for 51% of footwear and 30% of apparel units (43% of total units) last year.”
Moreover, “we are hard-pressed to see a scenario in which estimates will be revised higher this year,” Lyon said. “More likely, downward revisions are forthcoming.”
Even though “Nike typically is incredibly well-equipped to manage such disruptions, we fear this issue is just too large to control, even for the best-run athletic brand in the world,” he said.
Already in July, two Nike suppliers in Vietnam were cutting production to meet COVID-19 requirements there, according to exchange filings.
The suppliers for the athletic apparel/shoe company are Eclat and Quang Viet. Hong Kong-listed Shenzhou International, another Nike supplier, also unveiled a production reduction, Bloomberg reported.