Netflix to More Than Double Subscribers by 2030, RBC Says

Netflix shares were higher as RBC estimates the streaming service will nearly double its global market share over the next decade.
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Shares of Netflix  (NFLX) - Get Report on Tuesday rose after an RBC note estimated the streaming service could reach 500 million subscribers by 2030 from 193 million today.

RBC analyst Mark Mahaney raised his price target by 15% to $610 a share and affirmed an outperform rating.

The analyst expects Netflix to achieve 57% market share of global fixed broadband households (excluding China), nearly doubling its 29% share today. 

The Los Gatos, Calif., company "has achieved a level of sustainable scale, growth, and profitability that isn’t currently reflected in its stock price," Mahaney said. 

"We also view Netflix as one of the best derivatives off the strong growth in online video viewing and in internet-connected devices."

Netflix will have to reach those heights based on strong global growth. That's because RBC's survey of U.S. households in the current quarter showed 66% of respondents saying they watched the streaming service. That's down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Satisfaction also fell, down 3 percentage points to 65% in the current quarter from May, though it was up 1 point year over year. 

In the U.K., Netflix is seeing record market share, with 72% of respondents watching the service, up from the previous record of 67% last August. Netflix was the most popular streaming service surveyed. 

In India, mobile growth is leading the way with 49% of subscribers also subscribing to Netflix Mobile plans. Four of the five most watched shows on Netflix in India are original productions, and the top two are Hindi originals. 

Even in the U.S., RBC sees reason to be optimistic. 

"We view the steady expansion in U.S. contribution margins as demonstrating the company's profitability, with its fixed-cost content nature and historically declining churn rates suggesting further margin expansions," Mahaney said.