As if the market were not fighting enough with worries about the
, now enough people -- technicians and others -- are forecasting at least 3000 on the
and perhaps beyond. It's no wonder then, that investors have been reluctant to buy into the continuing onslaught.
In recent trading, the Nasdaq was down 45.25, or 1.4%, to 3119.30.
TheStreet.com Internet Sector
index was down 31.77, or 4.2%, to 727.04.
Nasdaq 3000 appears to be a foregone conclusion, while other market technicians see the Nasdaq seeing support anywhere from 2900 to 2600, or an area where it faced some resistance last year before rallying in October.
Among stocks on the decline,
was down 6 3/16, or 9.9%, to 56 7/16. As the government debates free trade for China,
was down 7 1/8, or 16.7%, to 35 1/2. (why are we skeptical that this really will help the human-rights effort over there?)
was down 4 7/16, or 9.2%, to 43 9/16;
was down 3 5/8, or 9.9%, to 32 7/8,
was off 10 11/16, or 14.9%, to 60 15/16; and
was down 5 3/8, or 7.9%, to 62 3/8.
Spitting into the wind,
was up 3 7/16, or 3%, to 119 7/16. The online auction company will split two for one after the close.
In the long and storied history of
Nothing but Net
(about a year), no figure has created more controversy than Steve Frenkel, market strategist with
. Back in
April 265 of you said he was an idiot for forecasting the Nasdaq would fall to 2729 when it was trading around 3800. With the Nasdaq now around 3100, we have been inundated with emails (roughly four), asking what he's saying now.
Frankly, we thought Frenkel had spelled out his thoughts perfectly clear the last time we spoke to him
May 5. At that time, he told us he expected the Nasdaq to reach 2729 within 10 days (it didn't happen), then rally to 3200 by late May, then a further drop in the Nasdaq to 1900 by late June. But since we at
believe that the reader is always right, we gave Frenkel a call. We got his machine the first time around, but persistence paid off and we got the latest from Frenkel.
"I pretty much laid it out and people thought I was an idiot," said Frenkel, who then requested another poll (we have complied, it's at the end of the article).
Frenkel still sees 2729 in the Nasdaq, but expressed amazement that there has not been the capitulation you would expect with the Nasdaq down 2000 points from its high. He said volume continues to be relatively light and investors are still looking for places to buy. Because there has been no capitulation yet, he said, the Nasdaq could trade below 2729. He said if it is 90 points below that, or 2639, for more than 30 minutes, he expects the 1900 level to come sooner than his late June call, though he placed only a 25% likelihood of that happening.
"The reason is nobody can believe we can be here. Everyone's in a state of denial," he said. "People don't realize the Nasdaq is down 2000 points. Because people don't believe it and people think they should buy, it could happen."
A couple of more minor tweaks to his forecast. Frenkel said he now thinks the 1900 level is more likely to be seen in the first week of July rather than the end of June and the recovery to go to 3150 rather than 3200. And when asked about his previous expectation for 2729 to be reached in 10 days, he said, "nobody's perfect. I don't see every little move. I count the major trends and get three-quarters of every move."
And since he was so generous with his time and because he has been mostly on the money and due to so many requests, those who are now Frenkel Followers can go right to the
Ladenburg Web site and hear Frenkley Speaking on a daily basis by hitting the media link.
Now what do you think of Frenkel?
He got lucky.
Wish I would have listened to him.
Took his advice, made lots of money.
Still an idiot.