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I've noticed there is a theme to the questions being asked on
lately. You might recall we went from Maria Bartiromo constantly asking guests what they would buy to finally at the November lows asking what they would sell. Now I see every guest, or practically every guest, is asked when he expects the recession to conclude.
It would seem to me that before guests are asked about the conclusion of the recession they should first be asked if they ever saw the recession coming. Because if they never saw it coming, then why would we care when they think it will be over? And if they never saw it coming it likely means those guests are permabulls and in this market we have learned "perma" anything is not a good thing to be!
Meanwhile, I also have noticed a pattern in the market for the past week. It's been so long since we've seen this pattern that I hadn't realized it: we're back to every other day. Since last Monday we have been up, down, up, down, up and down again Monday. I suppose if the pattern continues, Tuesday could be an up day.
Of course, on Tuesday we have
earnings, or lack thereof, to be announced, as well as the
decision on interest rates in the afternoon. One could easily cancel out the other.
Monday's action came on very light volume, which I'd put in the plus column. It also came on horrific breadth, which I'd put in the negative column. Also on the plus side was that the put/call ratio remained high, but to counter that the financials went back to acting poorly.
Monday's action didn't do much to change the fact that I simply don't have a strong view of the next few days.
However, the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline will once again be oversold around Thursday as we begin to drop a long string of negative numbers. Keep in mind this is a moving average and when we find ourselves dropping a long string of negative readings we consider the market oversold. Beginning Thursday, the next 10 out of 12 trading days we will be dropping negative ones readings. Since Thursday is Dec. 18, and 12 trading days from then is Jan. 5, I thought it was interesting how that worked out.
You see, I continue to think we get a rally around Christmas for the end of the year, with this being one of the indicators I'm keying off of. But I also find it fascinating that by Jan. 6 this indicator will be back to overbought again. I can't help but be reminded of the old adage about the first five trading days of January. For those who don't know, supposedly the first five trading days of January are a tell for the year: If they are up, the market is up on the year; if they are down, the market is down on the year. I don't know the batting percentage for this indicator, but I know many who adhere to it.
In the meantime, let's see if the up-down pattern holds Tuesday and we have an up day.
For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's
At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information,
. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback;
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