Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Cassel says Wall Street underappreciates Match's emerging brands, including Hinge, which she expects to reach 8.4 million users by 2030 with average revenue per user of $29 a month.
Hinge's ARPU should more than double over the next decade from $14 a month, she said.
The Dallas company's dating sites also include Tinder, OkCupid, Plenty Of Fish and OurTime.
"Not surprisingly, Hinge stands out as MTCH's next major revenue and earnings growth driver," Cassel wrote.
"Hinge functions largely as a 'step-up' from the more casual Tinder by combining in-depth profiles and curation seen in legacy brands, and offers the sleek mobile experience consumers raised on apps have come to expect."
Hinge has 6 million third-quarter monthly active users and 400,000 subscribers, the investment firm estimates. Cassel says that number is a drop in the bucket compared with its longer-term potential.
The 8.4 million subscribers would be larger than Match's subscriber base just two years ago. Hinge is expected to contribute 30% to 54% of the company's overall revenue growth over the next three and 10 years.
"MTCH has successfully grown each brand to be a dominant player within its respective space over the past three years, and ... these apps have significant monetization opportunities going forward," Cassel said.
Match Group shares at last check were trading off 1.1% at $107.15. In 2020 through the close of Wednesday trading the shares were up 32%.