Marriott shares have dropped 50% in 2020 through late morning Tuesday, compared with a 39% decline for Hilton.
Both hotel titans, of course, have suffered from the coronavirus pandemic, which has kept many would-be travelers at home.
For Marriott to trade at a multiple comparable to that of Hilton, MAR could soar 20% over the next 12 months, Kesten said.
Still, Kesten lowered her share price target for Marriott to $85 from $113, reflecting its recent plunge.
On March 17, Marriott became one of the first major companies to report large-scale layoffs.
It announced furloughs that could affect tens of thousands of workers. The company had 174,000 employees globally as of Dec. 31.
Morningstar analyst Dan Wasiolek has a bullish long-term view on Marriott.
“We expect Marriott to expand room and revenue share in the hotel industry over the next decade, driven by a favorable next-generation traveler position supported by renovated and newer brands, as well as its industry-leading loyalty program,” he wrote in a March 31 report.
Marriott’s "intangible brand asset and switching cost advantages are set to strengthen.”
He puts the fair value for Marriott’s shares at $120.
The stock recently traded at $76.88, up 8.9%, with the S&P 500 up 2.36%.