KeyBanc Expects Tesla to Deliver 30,000 Model 3s in Second Quarter

KeyBanc analyst Brad Erikson said he believes that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) will deliver 50% more Model 3 vehicles in the second quarter than the firm had previously predicted.

The firm now expects the electric vehicle maker to deliver 30,000 Model 3s in the second quarter, up from its previous view of 20,000 vehicles sold.

"Our checks with sales centers indicate Model 3 deliveries are tracking ~50% higher than our prior estimates for the quarter, prompting us to raise our estimates," Erickson said in a note to clients. "While the longer-term debate on TSLA remains more balanced ... we maintain that evidence supporting the bear case is not likely to emerge in the near term, in our view."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has vowed to produce 5,000 Model 3 units a week this quarter after multiple delays in the ramp of the vehicle's production in recent quarters. 

Analyst firm Nomura, one of the most bullish Tesla firms, said it believes that the stock could rally 42% over the next year to trade at $450 a share thanks to strong demand for the Model 3. 

"We believe Model 3 average selling prices (ASP's) are coming in above forecast due to stronger-than-expected demand for all-wheel-drive and performance configurations," Romit Shah of Nomura wrote recently. "We now estimate blended Model 3 ASPs approaching $60,000 in 2H18."

Tesla shares were up 2.5% early Tuesday.

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